FXUS64 KOUN 070444
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1044 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
OK BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING. THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN IN ITS
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT BEFORE
ERODING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING. MODERATE
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALSO DIMINISH ON MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009/
UPDATED...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FA
THIS EVENING. THREAT FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NW OK
APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED AND WILL REMOVE FROM THE GRIDS. STILL COULD
SEE SOME IN NCTRL OK FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ALTHOUGH MAIN AREA OF LIFT
APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING NE OF THE FA. TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS LOW IN
THE SE AND FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. WILL ADD FOG TO THE GRDS
THERE AS IT SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /538 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST WEST OF KOKC... TO KLAW... TO
KSPS AT 00Z WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
FREQUENTLY OCCUR BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT GENERALLY NEAR
AND NORTH OF A KHBR TO KOUN LINE BEFORE THINNING LATE TONIGHT. A
FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE... ALONG WITH LOCAL IFR
CEILINGS... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW OK THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FAR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OK THIS AFTN
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE STILL APPEARS
TO BE A SLIM CHANCE OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING A UPPER WAVE PUSHES EAST THROUGH
KANSAS. OTHERWISE ANOTHER COLD DAY ON MONDAY AS COLD SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTH.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS BACK TO OUR WEST AS WE WATCH STRONGER STORM
SYSTEM BEGIN TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM MAKES
ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES... LARGE SFC LOW PRES WILL TAKE
SHAPE... WHICH WILL TRY TO AID IN DEVELOPING A SE/S WIND ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT IN HOW FAST
THESE WINDS CAN ERODE THE COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE SFC
AS WAA DEVELOPS ABOVE THIS COLD AIRMASS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
LIGHT FZDZ/FZRA LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND THEN
LINGER FOR A WHILE TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH BEFORE TEMPS WARM
ENOUGH TO TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY
FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY. HOWEVER WITH ONLY LIMITED TIMEFRAME FOR THIS
EVENT TO OCCUR DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT ANYTHING AT THIS POINT.
HAVE MENTIONED IT IN OTHER PRODUCTS AND GRAPHICS.
SFC LOW GETS CRANKED UP AND ZIPS EAST NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER TUE AFTN
AND EVENING. COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TUE
EVENING AS COLD AIR PLUNGES SOUTH ON BACK SIDE OF LOW. AGAIN
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT AS SYSTEM QUICKLY PUSHES EAST AND
PRECIP SHUTS DOWN.
HOWEVER... BIGGER IMPACT LOOKS TO BE WRT TO THE WINDS... AS SFC LOW
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUE. VERY STRONG WINDS
DEVELOP AROUND THIS LOW. FIRST TO FEEL THE IMPACT COULD BE WESTERN
OK INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TUE AFTN AS SUEDO-DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH
ALLOWING STRONG WEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THEN TUE
NIGHT VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS SFC LOW EXITS.
THESE LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED WIND ADVISORY... AND POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING...
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. ALSO THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT.
MORE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP MINOR DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CONUS DURING THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS DURING LATTER PERIODS
AS CLOUD COVER AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AIR CONT TO HAMPER
ANY POTENTIAL WARM UP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 27 35 32 48 / 0 0 20 40
HOBART OK 24 38 32 53 / 0 0 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 30 45 38 59 / 0 0 20 20
GAGE OK 15 29 26 46 / 0 0 20 30
PONCA CITY OK 22 32 27 42 / 20 10 30 60
DURANT OK 30 47 38 52 / 10 0 30 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/30/32
