FXUS64 KHGX 221130
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
530 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TODAY ON STRENGTHENING SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO KEEP CEILINGS ABOVE IFR LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING
VCSH THAT WAS CARRIED IN PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE...BUT CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE A LOT BETTER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH AHEAD OF
AND ALONG A FAST MOVING AND STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  42 
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED -SHRA DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL WATERS JUST OFF COASTAL
BEND AND MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH. STILL QUITE DRY ABOVE 750 MB THIS
MORNING HOWEVER. PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY TIGHTENING UP ACROSS
CWFA WITH PRESSURES ALREADY FALLING OVER FAR NW TX AND NEW MEXICO.
PWATS CONTINUING TO INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF STORM
SYSTEM. WE STAYED CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION WITH MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM
INCLUDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL JET PICKING UP TODAY AND
INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
DIFFLUENT WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGH HELICITY VALUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. SWODY2
INDICATE SLIGHT RISK SVR FOR OUR REGION (WEDNESDAY). WE STAYED CLOSE 
TO PREVIOUS ZFPHGX WITH RESPECT TO POPS - LIKELY NE HALF OF REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY AND EASTERN PORTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE RAPID IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY MORNING WEST TO
EAST DUE TO FAST MOVING SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER CAA OVER
OUR REGION DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO THE 40S AND 50S EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND TO THE 30S AND 40S EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS SHOULD
BE IN THE 60S THURSDAY AND 50S FRIDAY. IT WILL BE COOL AND DRY ON
CHRISTMAS WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ECMWF
INDICATE WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER TX COASTAL
REGION IN RESPONSE TO A RELATIVELY WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING IN THE
ALMOST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. OUR SW REGION MAY GET A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE
REST OF CFWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND COOL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY GIVE OUR REGION A
CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE SHALL SEE. 37

MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN 
IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AROUND THE TEXAS 
PANHANDLE AREA. HAVE HOISTED CAUTION FLAGS FOR ALL WATERS TODAY... 
THEN RAISED TO ADVISORY FLAGS FOR THE 00-60 NM WATERS FROM TONIGHT 
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP CAUTION FLAGS UP FOR THE BAYS 
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THEY MIGHT 
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO ADVISORIES IF WINDS BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER 
THAN EXPECTED. WE COULD BE SEEING NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE SOUTH WINDS 
AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND OFFSHORE SEAS IN A 7 TO 10 FOOT RANGE 
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT RACES OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (A 
LITTLE EARLIER IN THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA). CONDITIONS STILL LOOK 
FAVORABLE FOR SOME AREAS OF SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING TONIGHT 
AND POSSIBLY LASTING UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A MODERATE TO STRONG 
OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WEAKENS A LITTLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT 
AND FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. OFFSHORE 
WATER WINDS MIGHT REMAIN A LITTLE STRONGER.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  62  71  49  61 /  20  40  50  60  20 
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  63  72  54  62 /  20  40  50  60  20 
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  62  70  58  64 /  20  30  50  60  20 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY 
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE 
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM 
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS 
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH 
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA 
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE 
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND 
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO 
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...37
AVIATION/MARINE...42