FXUS64 KHGX 071128
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
528 AM CST MON DEC 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG STILL REMAINS THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX AND WILL BE THE
MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN. LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE MORNING WITH ONLY MINOR IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. NAM/GFS
SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF DZ/RA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO MON NIGHT. TAF WILL AGAIN HAVE
LIFR CIGS AND MAYBE VIS BACK BELOW 1SM. LOOK TO HAVE LIGHT RA
PERSIST INTO TUE MORNING AGAIN. CHANCES ARE THAT SE TX TERMINALS
WILL BE STUCK IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME. CONDITIONS MAY NOT CLEAR UNTIL A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CST MON DEC 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT SHOULD
GO STATIONARY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME SETX WILL HAVE
CLOUDS AND FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 8 AM BUT THIS MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS BEFORE SLIGHTLY LOWER DP AIR WORKS
ITS WAY SOUTH. DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY. UPPER SPEED MAX OVER BAJA THIS
MORNING WILL CRUISE EAST AND SHOULD BRING INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT AS TROUGH OVER NRN CA SWINGS SE INTO 4 CORNERS
SLOWLY DRAGGING THE STATIONARY FRONT BACK NORTH INTO THE COASTAL
AREAS EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT CONTINUES NORTH AS TROUGH MOVES OUT
INTO THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS OUT THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COOL OF DRY AIR WED AFTERNOON. CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW TO THE N
AND NE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 170-180KT JET FROM NWTX-AR WED-THU WILL
AID SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS TX/LOWER MS VALLEY...PRODUCING DRY NEAR
SEASONAL WEATHER FOR SETX WED NIGHT-FRI MORNING. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER COMES IN ON THE FAST SRN STREAM ACROSS THE DESERT SW
FRI/EARLY SAT...WITH ANOTHER WF FRI NIGHT ALONG THE COAST. AM
FAVORING THE ECMWF 00Z SOLUTION OVER THE GFS THU AND BEYOND...SO
WILL BE KEEPING THE POPS IN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN DRYING
OUT SAT AFTERNOON AFTER CF PASSAGE BUT WITH POPS INCREASING SUNDAY
AS WF MOVES BACK THROUGH THE REGION.
OTHER ISSUES...ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS POSSIBLE AGAIN THU-FRI WITH
THE MODERATE NE-SE WINDS...MAY ALSO HAVE A POSSIBLE SEA FOG
SCENARIO SETTING UP EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW.
MARINE...
SOUTHERLY SWELLS MAY STILL BE AN ISSUE TODAY BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE AS OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. NORTHEAST
WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MODERATE SEAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE S PLAINS. SCEC MAY BE NEEDED
FOR TUESDAY WITH WINDS/SEAS APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO COME
OFF THE COAST WED MORNING. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED WED NIGHT INTO THU
AS WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
A LONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL POSSIBLY MAINTAIN 20KT
WINDS SUSTAINED WITH SEAS ABOVE 7 FEET.
39
AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE UP COMING 12Z TAF
PACKAGE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TO DETERMINE WHEN CIGS
WILL LIFT OR IF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN LOW CIGS DURING THE DAY TODAY BUT WILL
LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN MORE DZ/RA MON NIGHT.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 56 51 67 49 60 / 30 50 30 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 59 55 71 54 62 / 60 60 50 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 64 62 71 61 65 / 60 60 50 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...39
