FXUS61 KOKX 031328
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
828 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN
IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY.
THE RAINFALL OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...WITH
MUCH OF THE RAIN ENDING BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z AND SKIES CLEARING OUT.
VERY STRONG RIBBON OF WINDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. JFK TERMINAL DOPPLER SHOWING 60 KTS AT ABOUT 800 FT AGL...AND
KOKX 88D SHOWING 80KT+ BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 FT AGL. ACARS
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL.
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 2 TO 4C INCREASE IN TEMP TO ABOUT 2500 AGL...SO
NOT A VERY STRONG INVERSION...BUT PROBABLY ENOUGH TO KEEP
STRONGEST GUSTS AT BAY OUTSIDE HEAVY SHOWERS. CURRENT SFC OBS
SUPPORTING A SOLID WIND ADVISORY EVENT FROM NYC EASTWARD. DO NOT
SEE ANY REASON TO EXPAND OR CHANGE THE ADVISORY RIGHT
NOW. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT GUSTS INTO ADVISORY RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE IF HEAVIER RAIN OCCURS ACROSS THE ZONED NOT CURRENTLY IN
THE ADVISORY.
WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE PASSING THROUGH THE TRI-STATE
REGION...WITH 2-3C TEMP RISES IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO AND A SHIFT
FROM SE WINDS TO S. IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE FALLS OF UP TO 3MB NOTED
AS WELL. A SECONDARY/TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY BE TRYING TO FORM ACROSS SE
PA...WHICH MAY SERVE TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...BUT EASTERN SECTIONS SHOULD STAY VERY WINDY FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
PRECIP RATES GENERALLY ABOUT 1/4 INCH...UP TO 1/2 INCH PER HOUR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONVECTION IS VERY LIMITED AND ELEVATED...SO
EXPECT HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES TO BE VERY ISOLATED.
LINES OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN PA MAY MAKE THINGS INTERESTING
FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS...AS THEY MOVE INTO 60+ DEG AIR.
AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL OCCUR IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON (AROUND 60-MID 60S...EXCEPT NEAR 60 FAR
NW)...THEN EXPECT SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE HANDLED THIS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH THE WARMER
LOCATIONS ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND. THIS REPRESENTS A DROP OF 25
DEG FROM THIS MORNINGS TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
SOMEWHAT BETTER CONSENSUS ON A SFC LOW PASSING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REINFORCES COLD CONVEYOR BELT...AND THICKNESSES SUPPORT A PTYPE OF
MAINLY SNOW. HOWEVER WATERS TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S SHOULD WIN OUT AS
LONG AS THERE IS AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT. THE EC AND NAM ARE THE
"SNOWIEST"...AND ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD NUDGE TO THE EC WOULD BRING
AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW TO LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN CT.
OVERALL THE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN PTYPE FOR NOW THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATER SUN INTO MON...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH TUE. A WEAK...FAST MOVING SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY
STRONGER STORM WITH COASTAL REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WED EVENING
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH SUSTAINED SW TO W WIND OF
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KT ACROSS THE REGION.
VFR TODAY WITH SCT CLOUDS...WITH A PERIOD OF BKN VFR INSTABILITY
CU POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS DURING LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
03/12Z 23020G31KT
03/13Z 24020G31KT
03/14Z 24021G32KT
03/15Z 25021G32KT
03/16Z 25021G32KT
03/17Z 25020G30KT
03/18Z 25019G28KT
03/19Z 25018G26KT
03/20Z 26017G26KT
03/21Z 26016G25KT
03/22Z 27014G21KT
03/23Z 27013G20KT
KJFK...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
KLGA...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
KTEB...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
KHPN...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
KSWF...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
KISP...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
KBDR...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
KGON...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT...VFR.
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT MVFR TO IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW.
SUN TROUGH MON...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOLID GALE EVENT ONGOING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT REPORTED. THE
LIMITING FACTOR IN HIGHER WINDS IS A SURFACE INVERSION...HELPING
TO INSULATE THE SURFACE FROM 70 KT+ WINDS WITHIN 1000 FT. WHILE AN
ISOLATED GUST TO STORM FORCE IS POSSIBLE...IT WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED.
SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD SMARTLY...AND WILL PEAK AT 13 TO 15 FT LATER
THIS MORNING.
A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE END TIME OF THE GALE. WESTERN LI
SOUND AND NY HARBOR SET TO EXPIRE AT 11AM...BUT WILL HAVE TO
REASSESS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THE FREQUENCY OF GUSTS
REACHING 35 KT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLE ON ALL WATERS FOR WHILE AFTER
THE EXPIRATION OF THE GALE.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY FRI...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
LATER IN THE DAY. SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE SCA CRITERIA AGAIN ON THE
OCEAN SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES SOUTH/EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. THEN QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN THIS MORNING SHOULD COME TO AN END BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-1.5 INCHES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
OTHERWISE...AFTER THINGS DRY OUT THIS MORNING...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION (0.5 INCHES OR MORE) IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
A PASSING COASTAL LOW SATURDAY COULD BRING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF LIQUID...WITH SOME OF IT FALLING AS SNOW...SO NO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACT IS EXPECTED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT RESIDUAL WATER LEVEL RUNNING 1 TO 2 FT. BASED ON CURRENT
GAUGE OBSERVATIONS...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING DURING
HIGH TIDE LATER THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS IS.
WITH WAVES BUILDING AT ATLANTIC BEACHES THU...WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY THERE...ALSO HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR BEACH
EROSION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ007>012.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ009>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071>081.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ071>074-078-079.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ075>077-080-081.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ075>077-
080-081.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ005-006-011.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-340-345-
350-353-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ335-338.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BS
NEAR TERM...BC/BS
SHORT TERM...BC/BS
LONG TERM...BC/BS
AVIATION...NV/PW
MARINE...BS
HYDROLOGY...BS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
