FXUS62 KMFL 021859
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
159 PM EST WED DEC 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME AGREEMENT IN THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND. SFC LOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF U.S., PUSHING ITS COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY,
WHEN A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
PUSH THIS FRONT SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS THIS LOW EJECTS EAST
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.
RAINWISE...KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM BOCA RATON TO MARCO ISLAND STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THIS LINE, POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE FRONTAL POSITION
REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THE FRONT STARTS MOVING SOUTH AGAIN,
SO THE LIKELY POPS, MAINLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FROM SUNDAY ON,
KEPT POPS NEAR CLIMO.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS NEAR 20-30 KTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC WILL CONTINUE
MIXING WITH THE SFC FLOW TODAY LEADING US TO CONTINUE THE SCA FOR
THE ATLANTIC AND BAY WATERS INTO THE EVENING. BEYOND TONIGHT,
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SCA CRITERIA BUT NEAR 15-20 KTS
THEREFORE, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
WILL BEGIN THIS FORECAST WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDS AT FLL AND ALL
MIAMI- DADE TERMINALS...BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT SHRA TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. CIGS MAY
IMPROVE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 4-6Z AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS TO
SOUTHWEST AND ADVECTS HEALTHY STRATOCU NORTHEASTWARD. SHRA THREAT
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS...BUT WITH FRONT
EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING APF OVERNIGHT...WILL OPT TO INCLUDE
VCTS/CB INSTEAD OF VCSH. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN BY
MID/LATE MORNING...WITH HEATING AND PRESENCE OF FRONT IN VICINITY
OF SOUTH FLORIDA LEADING TO INCLUSION OF VCTS/CB FOR ALL TERMINALS
BEYOND 15Z. SSE WINDS 15G25 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SSW FLOW ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ATTM FOR THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 83 67 82 / 60 60 50 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 85 70 83 / 50 50 40 40
MIAMI 75 84 70 84 / 40 50 40 40
NAPLES 73 80 67 79 / 70 60 50 60
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...17/ERA...04/AT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD
