FXUS61 KCLE 091757
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1257 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE TO LAKE HURON BY EVENING
AND REACH QUEBEC BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SYSTEM TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY AND REACH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK AS FAR AS HIGH WINDS GO. HAVE STARTED TO SEE
SPEEDS PICK UP IN NW OH THIS MORNING. EARLIER IN THE MORNING SO 50
PLUS KNOT GUSTS AT KERI. CLEARING OVER SE AREAS MAY ALLOW MORE
CONVECTION TO FIRE. WILL HANG ON TO LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS ALL
AFTERNOON ALL AREAS. WRAP AROUND SNOW FROM LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS IN
AND EXPECT WESTERN AREAS TO SEE SOME SNOW BY EARLY EVENING. THERE
SHOULD NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF ACCUMULATION. TEMPS TOUGH...MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO TOPPING OUT. WILL JUST WORD FOR FALLING
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MOVE START TIME OF LAKE EFFECT WATCH UP
SEVERAL HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT 850MB TEMPS RANGE FROM -10 TO -12C WITH DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH...LIKELY FROM TOL TO YNG AND CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SNOW
BELT. THURSDAY DRYING TAKES PLACE IN THE SOUTHWEST HOWEVER WILL
KEEP CHC POPS NORTHWEST TO CATCH SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE MI. WILL
ALSO GO WITH CHANCE POPS CLE TO YNG AND CAT POPS ACROSS THE SNOW
BELT. AT FIRST NAM KEEPS BEST LIFT OFF SHORE WITH SWLY FLOW
HOWEVER FOR THE AFTERNOON NAM VEERS WINDS ENOUGH TO BEGIN TO BRING
SNOW ONSHORE FROM NRN ASHTABULA EAST ACROSS NRN AND NERN ERIE
COUNTY. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT NAM
SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE SNOW BELT WILL BE AFFECTED BY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WITH THE BEST CHANCE STILL FROM NRN LAKE AND NRN ASHTABULA
EAST ACROSS ERIE COUNTY. WINDS/BLOWING/DRIFTING WILL ALSO BE A
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM IF THIS ALL COMES TOGETHER AS PROGGED AND HAVE
WORDED THIS IN FORECAST AND STATEMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GIVEN NEAR TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES WENT WITH BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF
WITHOUT MUCH DEVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN PA WITH COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN OHIO. FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY ABOUT
21Z. COUPLE AREAS MODERATE CONVECTION WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NERN OHIO AND WESTERN PA. OVER FAR WESTERN OHIO PRECIP IS
STARTING TO MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW. THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST BY ABOUT 22-00Z. NON VFR WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS OF 45KT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...AFTERWORDS GUSTS TO 35KT
STILL LIKELY ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. LOW IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF CLEVELAND ALONG THE LAKESHORE
THROUGH THE ERIE AREA STARTING AFTER ABOUT 09Z THURSDAY.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY ERI AND POSSIBLY
CLE...CAK AND YNG. NON VFR CONTINUING ALONG LAKESHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR SATURDAY. NON VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
STORM WARNING STILL IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT CONTINUE TO PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ERIE EAST
OF THE LAKES BY TONIGHT. STORM FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO GALES LATER
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LAKES. GALE FORCE
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT OVER THE LAKE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
LOW WATER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SW FLOW INCREASES TO STORM FORCE. LOW WATER
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ012>014-089.
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ061-142>149-162>169.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142-143-162-
163.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...RANDEL
MARINE...DJB
