FXUS62 KTBW 151414
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
914 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2009
.UPDATE...PATTERN UNCHANGED FROM LAST FEW DAYS WITH UPPER SW FLOW
OVER THE REGION BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE NE CARIB TO W ATLANTIC
RIDGING AND CENTRAL U.S. TROUGHING AS SEEN WATER VAPOR LOOPS. THIS
SW FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING DRY AIR FROM THE S GULF AIR OVER THE
AREA. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM W ATLANTIC STRETCHES ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA WITH SE-S LOW LEVEL FLOW AS SEEN IN 12Z SOUNDING.
PWATS REMAIN AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE UNDER 10K FT INVERSION. DENSE MORNING FOG AGAIN THIS
MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS TO SLOWLY BURN
OFF AND MIX OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. PARTLY CLOUDS SKIES TO ALLOW GOOD DAYTIME
HEATING FOR NEAR RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY WITH WARMEST
CONDITIONS OVER INTERIOR AREAS. WILL UPDATE GRIDS AND FORECASTS TO
REMOVE DENSE MORNING FOG.
&&
.AVIATION...MORNING FOG FROM SRQ NORTHWARD CONTINUES TO ERODE AS
TEMPS RISE. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MORNING AS BKN DECKS AROUND 300-500FT LINGER AROUND THE TAMPA
BAY AREA. FURTHER SOUTH...DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO CREATE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING HIGHER DEW POINT AIRMASS OVER COOLER E
GULF WATERS PRODUCING AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG THIS MORNING AND TODAY.
THIS AREA NOT QUITE AS LARGE AS YESTERDAY BUT WILL AGAIN BE SLOW
TO BURN OFF AND MIX OUT AND WILL EXTEND TIMING OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 4 PM FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OFFSHORE
ZONES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 81 65 76 61 / 10 10 20 20
FMY 85 66 81 62 / 20 20 20 20
GIF 84 63 77 60 / 10 10 20 20
SRQ 82 63 78 61 / 10 10 20 20
BKV 84 59 75 57 / 10 20 20 10
SPG 81 66 75 63 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ENGLEWOOD TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...20/BARRON
