FXUS63 KGID 250533
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1133 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009

.AVIATION...06Z TAF. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SNOW SEEMS TO BE MOVING OFF THE TO
EAST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST OFF AND ON TONIGHT. MORE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND WITH STRONG
WINDS EXPECT BLOWING SNOW THAT WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITY. THE WORST
WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AND IT MAY COME
BACK UP DURING THE EVENING BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS
BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE THE CONDITIONS. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009/ 

UPDATE...WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES
WILL ONLY GET WORSE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND HAVE UPGRADED TO A
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THESE AREAS. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE
EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. MAY NEED TO
EVENTUALLY EXPAND THE BLIZZARD WARNING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS
SNOW WRAPS BACK AROUND FURTHER WEST ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009/

SHORT TERM...SEVERAL SHORT TERM CHANGES WHICH HAVE COME UP 
RECENTLY. 

UPGRADED NORTHERN THIRD OF CWFA BACK TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR 
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL AROUND THE LOW WILL
BE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW INCHES...MAYBE UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES IN 
THE FAR NORTHEAST CWFA FRIDAY. SIGNS ARE POINTING BACK TOWARD BLIZZARD
LIKE CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THAT AREA...AND HAVE TRENDED
THINGS UP WITH THE WARNING AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BE UP ONE NOTCH
FROM TODAY...AS NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST. THERE IS 
NO LET UP IN WIND UNTIL LATE FRIDAY EVENING...SO THE WARNING GOES 
UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY SEE 
THIS...AND WANT TO UPGRADE WITH SUCH HIGH WINDS. THE SNOW BECOMES 
QUITE A BIT LIGHTER SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 ROUGHLY...SO HAVE OPTED TO 
REMAIN WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THOSE AREAS. 
 
TONIGHT...EASTERN CWFA DANCING WITH THE WESTERN FRINGES OF BIG 
DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...
WITH OUR FAR EASTERN CWFA MAYBE PICKUP UP AN INCH OR SO OF
SNOW...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF STATE HIGHWAY 14. THINGS COULD
BE BLIZZARD LIKE AS WELL FOR A TIME...AND EVENING SHIFT MAY ALSO
NEED TO RAISE THE ANTI IN THOSE AREAS IF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
BAND CAN/T GET EAST OF HIGHWAY 81.

LONG TERM...12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN 
WEATHER PLAYER DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. 
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING ENERGY CONTINUING TO DUMBBELL 
AROUND EACH OTHER...WITH THE CENTER ENDING UP NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER 
SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WOBBLING 
AROUND THAT AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEEKEND LESS THAN 
PLEASANT ACROSS THE CWA.  MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH PUSHES 
BACK INTO THE CWA.  DID TREND POPS UP...MAINLY FOR SATURDAY ACROSS 
THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY LINGERING 
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  AND WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE 
AS STRONG AS FRIDAY...THEY WILL STILL BE STOUT WITH SPEEDS REMAINING 
NEAR 25 TO 30 MPH.

AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY AND INTO THE WORK WEEK...THE STORM SYSTEM 
FINALLY GETS A BETTER PUSH EAST...ESP SUNDAY NIGHT.  DURING THE DAY 
ON MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACTUALLY SETS UP THROUGH 
THE PLAINS AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN TOWARDS SOUTHERN CAL.  DID 
INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR 
TUESDAY NIGHT/WED...AS MODELS SHOW ENERGY SHIFTING THROUGH THE 
REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THERE ARE PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES 
WITH THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS EAST.  LOOKS 
TO BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM...PUSHING EAST AND LEAVING THINGS DRY 
FOR THURSDAY.  

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED...WITH 
HIGHS GENERALLY STICKING AROUND THE LOWER/MID 20S...BUT SOUTHWESTERN 
AREAS MAY CREEP CLOSER TO THE 30 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-
     047-061-062-075-076.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR 
     NEZ039-040-046-047-061-062-075-076.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ041-048-049-063-
     064-077-087.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ060-
     072>074-082>086.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$