FXUS64 KLZK 012323 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
523 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR. THERE WILL BE
BREAK OR GRADUAL LIFTING DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SURFACE SYSTEM IN THE GULF WILL GRADUALLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISENTROPIC UPLIFT ALONG/BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR RAIN TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH THROUGH EAST TEXAS
TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL BE
WIDESPREAD FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THERE
WILL BE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING LESS THAN A 10 DEGREE VARIATION FROM
OVERNIGHT LOW TO DAYTIME HIGH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH WILL
LIKELY LEVEL OFF AND BEGIN FALLING AROUND MID DAY...WITH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FALLING IN THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON. MOST
AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID
40S.

ACROSS THE NORTH...RAIN WILL START TO MIX WITH SNOW AS EARLY AS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRECIP
WILL COME TO AN END...BUT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN. 

AT THIS POINT...GROUND TEMPERATURES REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. AT BEST...COULD SEE A VERY LIGHT
DUSTING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. IT/S DOUBTFUL THAT
ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AS IT
APPEARS THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE REGION BEFORE THE
COLD AIR ARRIVES. 

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE UPPER LOW WILL PLUNGE
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 20S AND 30S. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 30S IN THE NORTH...AND WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH. 

A SECONDARY...MORE POTENT SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS UPPER TROUGH DIVES DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT WILL BE FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS TEXAS. COULD
STILL SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT GIVEN LOW PRECIP PROBABILITY WILL KEEP ALL MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. 

LOOKS AS THOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TWO NIGHTS...WITH A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE. TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTH AND WEST AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN INTO THE
REGION AND CLOUDS DECREASE.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES. WINTER IS HERE...

..AT LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS ANYWAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TO START 
THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE MOST OF THE 
PERIOD...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE A 
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ALTHOUGH MUCH DISAGREEMENT EXISTS IN THE 
PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL PUSH EASTWARD 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE 
APPROACHING TROUGH...BUT DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODELS...ONLY 
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS 
SYSTEM MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL 
FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND LOWS 
IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58