FXUS66 KEKA 091711 AAA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
911 AM PST WED DEC 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...THE COLD AIR MASS WILL FINALLY BEGIN A SLOW RETREAT
TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC INCHES CLOSER TO
CALIFORNIA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY WEEKS END AS A
SERIES OF STORMS BEGIN TO LINE UP OUT WEST.
&&

.UPDATE...COLD AIR MASS REMAINS OVER NW CA THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS 
ALONG THE COAST DROPPED INTO THE MID 20S THIS MORNING AND WILL WARM 
TO TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE HARD 
FREEZE WARNING ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT EXPECTED 
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 324 AM PST WED DEC 9 2009...THE COLD 
AIR IS QUITE STUBBORN...AND WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT. INCREASING 
HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DEVELOPING STORM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MAY MOVE 
OVER NRN CA TONIGHT...WHICH COULD LIMIT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT 
AGAIN. THERE MAY BE A DRAMATIC FALL IN TEMPS DURING THE 
EVENING...WITH STEADY TEMPS POSSIBLE AS HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO 
INCREASE. WITH SO MANY VARIABLES TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...WE WILL NOT 
ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL HEADLINES...BUT ONE MORE NIGHT OF A HARD FREEZE 
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE REDWOOD COAST. THIS 
IS BASED ON EXPERIENCE TELLING ME THAT SUCH COLD DENSE AIR IS MUCH 
SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT THAT MODEL GUIDANCE OR EVEN LOGICAL REASONING 
WOULD SUGGEST.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE TRANSITION FROM COLD AND DRY TO
MILD AND WET BEGINNING ON THU. WEAK RIDGING OVER CA SHOULD HOLD ON
THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK LOW TRIES TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND BULLY ITS
WAY ONTO THE CENTRAL CA COAST. WE HAVE HUNG ONTO CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING DURING THE DAY ON THU TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
WITH THIS DECAYING SYSTEM. A MORE ROBUST TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW TRACKS TOWARD CENTRAL CA FRI NIGHT...WITH RAIN ALMOST A
CERTAINTY ON SAT. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. JCA

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL HANDLED BEST BY ENP. FOLLOWED
ENP FOR THE MOST PART...KEEPING SWELL UP NEAR 10 FT INTO THU. LIGHT 
WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THU...THEN GRADIENTS TIGHTEN 
ON FRI AS A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE 
STRONGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS FIRST THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY. LOOKS 
LIKE A SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EVENT (25KT) WITH MARGINAL LOW END 
GALES OF 30G35KT AROUND WIND PRONE AREAS LIKE CAPE MENDOCINO. DJB
 
&&

.AVIATION...DRY/COLD/STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE 
TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. DJB

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY 
PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

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