FXUS63 KJKL 260755
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 AM EST THU NOV 26 2009
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED
HAPPY THANKSGIVING!
COLD FRONT IS NOW MARCHING ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS... JUST PASSING LEX
LAST HOUR. THE FRONT SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST BY DAWN. EXPECT NO PRECIP
WITH THE FRONT... BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PUSHED UP THE
TERRAIN THERE. COLD ADVECTION WILL THEN BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY
BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SOLAR INSOLATION TO BOOST TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED LOBE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
THEN SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BECOMES A BIT UNSTABLE IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE
AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY
WITH COVERAGE RAMPING UP A BIT INTO THE NIGHT... ESPECIALLY FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE OROGRAPHICS WILL MAXIMIZE LIFT AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS GAIN A BIT OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT. WHILE ANY PRECIP WILL BE
ALL RAIN TODAY... SNOW WILL MIX IN FROM THE TOP DOWN THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. VALLEYS MAY NOT COOL ENOUGH TO
SEE ALL SNOW... BUT EVEN IF THEY DO... NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW AND LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE NOT IDEAL
FOR UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT SO EVEN THE HIGHEST RIDGES ALONG THE
VIRGINIA BORDER SHOULD NOT SEE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO.
GFS/NAM BOTH THIN OUT THE MOISTURE QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING SO EXPECT
ANY PRECIP TO END QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING. DECREASING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR
TEMPS TO DROP OFF RATHER WELL IN OUR VALLEYS... WITH MID TO UPPER
20S EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPDATED
ACTIVE PATTERN TO BE SURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND
BEYOND. THE WEEKEND POSES FEW PROBLEMS WITH GENERALLY DRY/SEASONAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS LIKELY
OVERDOING THE WARMUP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SUPPRESSES MIXED LAYER EACH DAY. THEREFORE...
WE CONTINUED TO HOLD FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF A CONGEALING
STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST MAY YIELD A SHOWER OR TWO OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BEFORE DARK ON SUNDAY... BUT PROGS INDICATE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WHILE STILL NOT A SLAM DUNK BY ANY MEANS... I DID FEEL
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ON MONDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY... I AM NOT SURE OF MUCH BEYOND MONDAY AS FORECAST
MODELS ARE THROWING A FIT IN THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME THAT MATERIALIZES
OVER THE CONUS. WHILE THE LATEST SET OF GUIDANCE HINTS AT A DRY
PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... FELT IT WISE TO ONLY NUDGE
INHERITED FORECAST SLIGHTLY IN THAT DIRECTION. THUS ONLY LOWERED
POPS A BIT AND MAINTAINED SOME MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALSO MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO
FORECAST TEMPS... MAINTAINING HIGHS NEAR CLIMO BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL LOWS EXPECTING THE MODIFYING EFFECTS OF ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/
A LARGE UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI. THE NEXT FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 12Z. THERE MAY A BIT OF
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING AS A LIMITED DRY SLOT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THEN THE POST FRONTAL TROUGH AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH SOME MVFR EXPECTED
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THE POST FRONTAL WRAP AROUND CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING WILL DROP CIGS TO THE MVFR RANGE WITH ISOLATED SHRA IN THE
AREA. WITHOUT A BETTER PICTURE OF THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THE SHRA WILL
CURRENTLY MENTION VCSH FOR NOW AFTER 00Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...DUSTY
