FXUS63 KDLH 260232
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
832 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
.UPDATE...MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPS AND POPS AS LARGE WINTER STORM
CONTINUES TO PINWHEEL THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. BANDS OF SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FA THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY -DZ/-FZDZ
ALSO POSSIBLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT WHEN COLDER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES. NO
CHANGES TO HEADLINES.
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...OCCASIONALLY REACHING LIFR IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN ISSUES FOR TONIGHT'S FORECAST IS ON HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SNOW
WILL FALL...AND WHAT TO DO WITH THE HEADLINES.
WE WILL DROP THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE TWIN PORTS/CLOQUET/TWO
HARBORS/SILVER BAY AREAS...AND GO WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING. WE
ALSO DROPPED THE WARNING FOR NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY...WHERE
LITTLE SNOW HAS FALLEN. LITTLE SNOW HAS ALSO OCCURRED IN FAR NORTHERN
LAKE/COOK COUNTIES...BUT THAT ZONE IS ODDLY SHAPED...AND PARTS OF
THE ZONE CLOSEST TO THE LAKE AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY NEED TO BE
IN A WARNING...SO WE'LL KEEP THE ENTIRE ZONE IN. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
DROPPING FOR KOOCHICHING...BUT THEY HAVE HAD AROUND 6 INCHES...AND
COULD PICK UP A COUPLE MORE TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IS
ANOTHER PROBLEM AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS ROTATING THROUGH
IL...AND THERE WAS PRECIP MOVING NORTH OUT OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...SO WE'LL KEEP THE WARNING GOING FOR NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN.
SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN NORTHWEST IA...AT 987MB. STRONG WINDS
WERE STILL OCCURRING AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH KDLH RECENTLY
GUSTING TO 46 KNOTS. SNOW IS SO STICKY...AND VSBYS WERE 1-2SM AT
2 PM IN DULUTH.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OR BECOME ALL SNOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. AMDAR SOUNDING AT KRHI LATE THIS MORNING HAD COOLED 3
DEGREES...AND WAS SUGGESTING MOSTLY SNOW. LOW LEVEL TEMPS OFF THE
SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO COOL FROM THE SOUTH...AND WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO LET UP AS WELL. SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING SOME
WARM CLOUD TOPS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...BUT HAVE
RECENTLY COOLED SO ANY FZDZ WOULD BE SPOTTY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST...THEN NORTH AND BACK
WEST...PINWHEELING THROUGH WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. WE WILL KEEP
POPS ON SATURDAY LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
OF A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE NORTH SHORE FOR ENHANCED PRECIP
TONIGHT. A SPOTTER...LOCATED A FEW MILES UP THE GUNFLINT TRAIL
FROM GRAND MARAIS WAS REPORTING HEAVY SNOW...WITH NEAR WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS AS OF 2 PM. WE HAVE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS TONIGHT UP THE
NORTH SHORE.
EXTENDED...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL LOSE INTENSITY AS
IT SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST OVER MICHIGAN AND THE ERN GRT LKS
SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE WILL BREAK FREE FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW
AND DROP SOUTH OVER ONTARIO AND INTO THE WRN GRT LKS REGION SUN
NIGHT/MONDAY. ATTM...THIS WAVE WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE TIP OF THE
MN ARROWHEAD AND BRING LK EFFECT SN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LK SUPERIOR AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPR TEENS BELOW ZERO AND
WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE N. INCREASED POPS ALONG THE GOGEBIC
RANGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE FOUND MON
NIGHT/TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE THAT WILL BRING A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE FA TUES NIGHT/WED.
AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...MAINLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND HIGH WINDS
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING BUT THE IFR OCCASIONALLY LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO
LIGHT SNOW AND LOW CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY IMPROVE LATE
SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 30 30 19 24 / 100 80 40 30
INL 25 29 20 23 / 100 90 30 20
BRD 28 29 18 24 / 100 90 40 20
HYR 28 28 12 21 / 100 70 60 40
ASX 28 28 15 23 / 100 60 50 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ010-012-
018>021-025-026-033>038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ011.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ001>004-
006>009.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
GSF
