FXUS66 KSGX 011101
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PST TUE DEC 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH
MINOR FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DECREASE
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INLAND VALLEYS.
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING BUT
MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN A BIT TODAY WITH SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING OVER...THEN LITTLE CHANGE WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL
INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY AND MORE ON FRIDAY. NAM MODEL STILL SHOWS AN
EDDY DEVELOPING THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MOVING INTO THE
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST. NOTHING APPARENT YET BUT KSAN SHOWING A FEW
LOW CLOUDS BRIEFLY. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST AND SPREAD TO
ORANGE COUNTY THIS EVENING. COASTAL AREAS AND SOME INLAND VALLEYS
SHOULD BE UNDER LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
COULD GET INTO THE SBD/RIV VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW A WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND THEN THE GRADIENTS
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR POSSIBLE STRONG
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INLAND VALLEYS. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT THE MARINE LAYER BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. A LARGE TROUGH SLOWLY SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS SOUTH. THICK
HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE ON THEIR
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR OR SEPARATE WAYS BUT STILL SHOW THERE IS A CHANGE
COMING. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH LATER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT THE ECMWF IS CONTINUING TO BRING A RATHER POTENT
COLD FRONT THROUGH SOCAL ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST WILL GO WITH THE
ECMWF VERSION WITH RAIN ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
010945Z...COASTAL EDDY SPINNING UP BUT ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED STRATUS
LAYER OVER WATER/IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH 011800 UTC WITH BASES FL008
AND TOPS FL013. BETWEEN 1800-0300 UTC...STRATUS LAYER BECOMING
BROKEN-OVERCAST. BETWEEN 02/0300-1500 UTC...STRATUS LAYER SPREADING
INLAND 30 SM AND DEEPENING WITH BASES AROUND FL010 AND TOPS
FL020-FL025. STRATUS LAYER BECOMING SCATTERED AFTER 02/1600 UTC.
SCATTERED CIRROSTRATUS AOA FL220.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...WHITLOW
AVIATION...BALFOUR
