FXUS62 KMFL 222006
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
306 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WILL SHIFT
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT/WED LEADING TO A MORE
ESTABLISHED EASTERLY WIND FLOW. TRICKY FORECAST IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
AND THIS AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS CLEARING OUT OF THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.
THE WIND DIRECTION FCST IS TRICKY TONIGHT. WEAK RIDGING DOWN THE
PENINSULA AND CLEARING SKIES LENDS TOWARDS A LAND BREEZE.
HOWEVER...GFS/NAM DO SHOW THE EAST FLOW ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
LIKE THE WRF-ARW DEPICTION OF WINDS/TEMPS WITH A LAND BREEZE EXCEPT
ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. SO THERE MAY BE QUITE A TEMP
GRADIENT FROM THE COAST TO THE WESTERN SUBURBS ALONG THE EAST
COAST. SIDED CLOSER TO THE WARMER WRF FOR KPBI/KFLL...AND CLOSE TO
GFS/NAM MOS OTHER LOCALES. LOWERED POPS...BUT DID KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT AS THERE WILL BE
CONVERGENCE THERE BUT WITH QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE...HENCE THE
SLIGHT CHC POPS.

LOOKS LIKE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL ON WED WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE. THINGS CHANGE BY THURSDAY AS AN
INTENSE WINTER STORM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION.
TROUGHING THERE PUSHING THE RIDGE FURTHER EAST ALLOWS FOR A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. THUS...RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON THU...ESPECIALLY THU AFTERNOON/FRI EVENING. THE
LATEST GFS RUN SHOWS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTING NORTH ACROSS
SOUTH FL THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING ALONG WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES WITH THIS FEATURE. SO WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. HOWEVER...OTHER MODELS DO NOT SHOW THIS
FEATURE. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHEST POPS EAST COAST WHERE CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT ALONG THE GULF
COAST. 

CHRISTMAS LOOKS WARM WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE MAIN FRONT NOT MOVING THROUGH UNTIL FRI NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE DYNAMICS ARE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
AND INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL. SO KEPT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITHOUT
THUNDER MENTION AT THIS TIME. THINGS IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
A COOL DOWN...THOUGH GFS IS SHOWING LESS OF A COOL OFF COMPARED TO
24 HR AGO.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS LEADING TO INCREASING SEAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM
WHERE SEAS OF UP TO 6 FT ARE EXPECTED WED-THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  64  76  66  79 / 10 10 10 30 
FORT LAUDERDALE  68  76  68  79 / 10 10 10 30 
MIAMI            64  77  68  79 / 10 10 10 30 
NAPLES           54  78  60  82 / -  -  -  20 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...57/DG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD