FXUS62 KMHX 242014
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
314 PM EST THU DEC 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE 
WEST FRIDAY FOR A WET CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT. SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT 
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL 
MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE 
INCREASING MOISTURE AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. 
WILL HAVE INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP US 
REACH OUR LOW TEMPERATURE BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN 
TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND EXPECT 
OVERRUNING PRECIPITATION TO MOVE IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE. 
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED AND WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER WITH THIS 
SYSTEM. WARM FRONT EXPECT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND 
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT FAST ON ITS HEELS WITH THE WIND 
BECOMING WESTERLY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY 
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S UNDER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE 
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS ENSEMBLE HINTING AT A WEAK DRY SURGE COMING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT 
TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL HELP 
BRING LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE 
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER EASTERN 
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN THE 
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. BY WEDNESDAY A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE LOW WILL SKIRT THE 
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION OVER CWA 
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245PM THURSDAY...SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR ALL DAY THOUGH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE THE
FLOW IS MORE ONSHORE. THINK SOME OF THIS WILL IMPACT ERN NC
TONIGHT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW LEVELS BECOMING MORE
SATURATED AS THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH BEGINS MOVING EAST...AND HAVE
CONTINUED PREVIOUS THINKING OF MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
CHRISTMAS MORNING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS FROM THIS
AS THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINES WITH THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION ESP IF
THE NAM12 IS CORRECT. THINK CIGS WILL INITIALLY LIFT A BIT WITH
HEATING TOMORROW MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THEN COME BACK
DOWN LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON (AFTER 18Z) AND INTO TOMORROW
EVENING AS PRECIP MOVES IN AHEAD OF TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP BETWEEN 20Z
FRI AND 9Z SAT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE
REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SAT AS THE
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. ALSO EXPECTING GUSTY E BECOMING SE WINDS
TOMORROW. GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SHOWING GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE
AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WHILE VEERING MORE S THEN SW.

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS 
IN FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. GFS IS GENERATING SOME LIGHT PRECIP 
OVER THE REGION LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING 
THROUGH AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF...BUT APPEARS TO BE 
OVERDONE SO NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT THIS 
POINT. REINFORCING HIGH PRES AND PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW AND VFR 
EXPECTED THE REST OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 3PM THU...SMALL CRAFT SEAS HAVE DEVELOPED AT DIAMOND SHOALS IN 
RESPONSE TO 20 KT RANGED NNE WINDS IN THE REGION BETWEEN HIGH PRES 
TO OUR NORTH AND WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING TO OUR S. THE GRADIENT 
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE TIGHTER FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS PATTERN...AND 
AS A RESULT CAPE LOOKOUT HAS RECENTLY INCREASED ABOVE 20KTS 
SUSTAINED. WILL THUS INITIALIZE WATERS SOUTH OF OCRACOKE IN THE 
20-25KT RANGE TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY LOWER ELSEWHERE...BUT KEEP THE 
ADVISORY AS IS ALL COASTAL WATERS FOR AT LEAST SEAS. OVERALL LITTLE 
CHANGES IN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT WE ARE STILL 
EXPECTING DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT. 
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH AND 
EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA....WITH AN ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT 
LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC BY EARLY TOMORROW 
EVENING. THE LOW THEN MOVES N OF THE AREA BY EARLY SAT ALLOWING A 
TRAILING COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH. MOST OF THE 12Z COMPUTER MODEL 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF 30KT RANGED SE WINDS TO 
TRANSITION NORTH THROUGH OUR WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW 
NIGHT. THIS MEANS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS AND HAVE 
THUS ISSUED A GALE WATCH. HELD OFF ON THE WARNING AS IT SEEMED A 
LITTLE TOO MARGINAL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GALES APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 
THE LOOKOUT AND HATTERAS LEG WHERE THE WARMEST WATERS ARE AROUND TO 
HELP MIX STRONGER WINDS DOWN FROM JUST ABOVE THE SFC. HAVE LEANED 
TOWARDS SWAN FOR THE EVENT WHICH PEAKS SEAS IN THE 12-15FT RANGE 
FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER ELSEWHERE TOMORROW 
NIGHT...BUT DID USE A SLOWER WAVE GROWTH THAN SWAN TO ACCOUNT FOR 
ITS BIAS TO BUILD WAVES TOO QUICKLY IN THESE TYPE OF EVENTS. 

WINDS COME DOWN QUICKLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT SATURDAY MORNING AS THE 
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. IT IS NOTED THAT THE NAM12 KEEPS SCA WINDS 
AROUND A BIT LONGER ON SAT BUT ITS SLOWER SOLUTION SEEMED TO BE A 
BIT OF AN OUTLIER SO WE HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF. MAINLY 
WLY WINDS AOB 15KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS 
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER...SEAS ARE 
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH SLOWER TO COME DOWN BELOW THE 6FT ADVISORY LEVEL 
AS FADING SE/S SWELL FROM THE FRONT MIXES WITH A RISING LONG PERIOD 
ENE SWELL FROM THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN SITTING EAST OF THE CANADIAN 
MARITIMES. WW3 STILL SHOWS THIS COMPONENT PEAKING AROUND 5FT AT 12S 
ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT WHICH IS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT FOR THE EAST COAST. 
WE WILL NEED TO WATCH UPSTREAM BUOYS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO TO FINE 
TUNE THIS...BUT WW3 HAS A TENDENCY TO BE TOO LOW WITH ITS WAVE 
PERIODS IN THESE EVENTS. THUS LOOKING AT HIGH SURF ADVISORY 
POTENTIAL LATE TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY SAT FOR ALL BEACHES (MAINLY 
FROM FRONTAL SE WAVE ENERGY)...THEN FOR EAST FACING BEACHES ESP IN 
THE OBX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND FROM THE ENE SWELL. 

A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUN NIGHT WILL ALLOW REINFORCING HIGH 
PRES TO REBUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO FAIRLY STRONG W TO NW 
WINDS MON AND TUE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN. IMPROVING 
CONDITIONS BY WED...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ALLOWS THINGS TO 
GO DOWNHILL AGAIN INTO NEXT THU. 

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY 
     FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR 
     AMZ130.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR 
     AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR 
     AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR 
     AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...MW