FXUS64 KMOB 021742 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1142 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...17Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A 996 MB SFC LOW VERY
CLOSE TO TUPELO MS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY AS IT QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE ARKLAMISS. STILL HAVE
SOME LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO EXIT THE AREA IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAVING ENDED...THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI HAVE SEEN A
RETURN TO SUNSHINE AS THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUES TO SURGE
NORTHEAST. EXPECT TO A CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT OF SKY CONDITIONS
FURTHER EAST WITH MANY PLACES SEEING AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. IT DOES LOOK LIKE MORE LOW CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE 925 MB TROUGH...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ZONES UNTIL VERY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THE DRY SLOT HAS WORKED IN...THE ATMOSPHERE IS
BECOMING DEEPLY MIXED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING CLOSE TO
850 MB THIS AFTERNOON. 35 TO 40 KT OF WIND ARE PRESENT ATOP THE MIXED
LAYER...SO WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE MUCH OF
THIS WIND MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EXPECTING FREQUENT GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH ACROSS THE REGION...PERHAPS A FEW 40 MPH GUSTS AS WELL. WITH
THIS IN MIND...HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AND
EXPANDED IT TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE REGION.

THESE STRONG SW WINDS WILL PRESENT A PROBLEM OF COASTAL FLOODING THIS
AFTERNOON AS ASTRONOMICAL TIDES RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING.
ALREADY SEEING WATER LEVELS BEGIN TO RISE SOME ALONG THE EASTERN
SHORE OF MOBILE BAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TOTAL TIDE HEIGHTS TO
REACH 3 FT BY EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN
ISLAND AND THE NORTH AND WEST SHORES OF LOCAL BAYS AND SOUNDS. A
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.  34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION..
18Z TAF CYCLE.
THE DRY SLOT HAS WORKED INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS
LIKELY THIS EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE VERY BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...GUSTING TO
25-30 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANY MVFR CIGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.  34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009/ 

LONG TERM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WITH COLD
FRONT SINKING DEEP INTO THE GULF. DAILY HIGHS LOOK TO PROGRESSIVELY
COOL AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS AS LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IS FAVORING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTRY STUFF OVER OUR
FAR NORTHERN ZONES. IT APPEARS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM
UP AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER
AIR TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD AND BRING A REGION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST...WELL NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SUBFREEZING DEEP MOIST COLUMN STARTING OUT NEAR H95
MB...WITH MORE OF SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT PROFILES/DRIER AIR
NOTED AT THE SURFACE OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING. AS PRECIPITATION FALLS...THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR FREEZING...SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF A
CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW. WE HAVE THIS POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST
GRIDDED WEATHER FORECASTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM RICHTON MISSISSIPPI TO CHATOM...MONROEVILLE...TO
BRANTLEY ALABAMA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT IT IS
STILL EARLY TO GET OVERLY SPECIFIC IN THIS DEPARTMENT. LATEST
OPERATIONAL GFS MOS POP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT HAS COME IN WITH CATEGORICAL
NUMBERS (~80%) FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER ENTIRE AREA. KIND OF ROBUST FOR
THREE DAYS OUT...SO HAVE FOLLOWED THE LOWER ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR POP
THEN. COLDEST DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS LOOKING
TO STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S OVER THE INTERIOR AND OUT OF THE
LOWER 50S OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

HIGH LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO TRANSITION TO ONE OF A ZONAL CHARACTER=>EAST/WEST
SET UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALLOWING FOR 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES TO
MODERATE WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
WEATHER LOOKS TO QUIET DOWN AS WELL BUT BRIEFLY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE YET AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
LOWER ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...INDUCING TROFFING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING UP OVER EAST TEXAS
INTO LOUISIANA AND DEEPER GULF MOISTURE SPREADING IN OFF THE
GULF...CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME BACK UP TUESDAY. /10

MARINE...A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE 
WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS 
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND OVER ALABAMA. SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE AT TIMES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST 
OF THE MARINE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. A STRONG 
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT AND 
EARLY THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY 
THURSDAY EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD LATE THURSDAY 
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH 
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. WITH THIS...WILL CONTINUE THE GALE 
WARNING FOR MOBILE BAY THROUGH NOON AND OFFSHORE THROUGH 06Z THU. 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL FOLLOW THE GALE WARNING FOR EACH AREA 
THROUGH THU MORNING. /32 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE. 

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND 
     WILCOX. 

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. 

     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...AND COASTAL 
     SANTA ROSA. 

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE. 

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND 
     MOBILE BAY. 

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: AND MOBILE BAY. 

     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 
     NM. 

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO NOON THURSDAY FOR 
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO 
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL 
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO 
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA 
     FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM. 

&&

$$