FXUS63 KLBF 102055
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
255 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009

...A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC
SURGE MONDAY...

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IN STORE. SURFACE
HIGHS PRESSURE AND EXPANSIVE SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE A
STRONG INVERSION. RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE FAVORED FOR LOWS AT OR BELOW -10F. FORECASTING -13F FOR
LBF AND -9F FOR KVTN. WELL BELOW THE RECORD LOWS HOWEVER WHICH ARE
-21F FOR LBF AND -20 FOR VTN. A MODEST WARMUP FRIDAY AS MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIRMASS IS SHUNTED FURTHER EAST. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDINESS WITH WINDS LIGHT SOUTHWEST AOB 10KTS. 12Z GFS AND NAM
SIMILAR WITH OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A PACIFIC AIRMASS EAST INTO PLAINS...WITH THE ARCTIC
AIR RETREATING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST U.S. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND...WITH BOTH GFS AND NAM H925
TEMPS SUPPORTING UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB ON
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OF COURSE WITH PLENTY OF SNOW
COVER...AND LACK OF DEEP MIXING WITH ONLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GO ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW COLDEST MET GUIDANCE SATURDAY.
WARMER SUNDAY HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAYS HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 20S NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACH SUNDAY WILL ONLY
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
-SN OR FLURRIES HAS BEEN DELAYED TIL LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
DETAILED IN EXTENDED DISCUSSION. 

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ARCTIC SURGE
WILL AGAIN IMPACT WRN NEBR...ALTHOUGH DURATION AND COLDNESS WILL
BE LESS THAN WITH RECENT SURGE. FAVORING THE 12Z GFS WITH A FASTER
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO NRN NEBR BY 06Z MONDAY. THIS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHC FOR
-SN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND CHC FOR FLURRIES TO THE SOUTHEAST
BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT. ECMWF THE OUTLIER BRINGING IN THE ARCTIC AIR
ON SUNDAY ABOUT 18 HRS SOONER. FORECASTING ABOUT A 10-20 DEGREE
COOLDOWN MONDAY TO THE UPPER TEENS NCTRL AND UPPER 20S FAR
SOUTHWEST. CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT
WARMUP TUESDAY AS ARCTIC AIR RETREATS FURTHER EAST. UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING
MILDER TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
DRY AS WELL.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AGAIN OVERNIGHT UNDER SKC AND 
UNLIMITED VSBYS. WITH STRONG INVERSION EXPECTED AGAIN WINDS SHOULD 
BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT AND MAINLY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY. LLWS IS NOT 
EXPECTED WITH WINDS THROUGH AND ABOVE INVERSION EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
UNDER 30KTS.  

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...ROBERG
AVIATION...13