FXUS64 KSJT 301801
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1201 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009
.UPDATE...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL
TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AS
CIGS LOWER AND RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES TO LOWER MAX TEMPS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST ZONES
WHERE GREATEST CLOUD COVER/PRCIP IS EXPECTED. HIGHS OVER THIS AREA
SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 40S. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND LATEST RUC GUIDANCE HAVE REMOVED POPS OVER MUCH OF THE BIG
COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS STILL
LOOK GOOD OVER THE N EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NW HILL COUNTRY WHERE
BEST MOISTURE/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE HOWEVERE WITH TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AT OR BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 18
HOURS...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBILITY OF TEMPORARY MVFR AT SONORA THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT SOA...JCT AND BBD ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT DO NOT EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO FALL
BELOW 4 MILES. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES.
LIKELY TO SEE CEILINGS DROPPING THROUGH THE EVENING TO MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009/
SHORT TERM...
A STRONG UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A COUPLE WEAK
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO WEST TEXAS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW.
ONGOING LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE
RATHER LIGHT TODAY AND TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD BUT
ABOVE FREEZING...SO PRECIP WILL FALL AS LIQUID FORM THROUGH TONIGHT.
08
LONG TERM...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO SLOWLY
MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY...THEN EAST ACROSS
THE I-10 CORRIDOR OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TUE NIGHT AND THEN INTO
EAST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF ON THE TIMING OF THE EVENT...SO HAVE KEPT A RAIN/SLEET
MIX OCCURRING OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO
VALLEY AND NORTH EDWARDS PLATEAU BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF MOSTLY
SNOW EXPECTED OVER EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE BIG COUNTRY... CONCHO
VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WC TEXAS ON TUE AND THEN DECREASING TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTH EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT EXPECT ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING AS SFC TEMPERATURES WARM UP.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE TUESDAY WILL BE COLD WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
ONLY WARMING UP TO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BE A LITTLE WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWS 50S. FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY
IN MID 40S TO LOW 50S AND ON FRIDAY IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 52 37 38 32 46 / 10 30 70 60 30
SAN ANGELO 49 37 37 33 47 / 30 40 70 40 20
JUNCTION 48 38 43 36 51 / 50 50 70 30 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/24
