FXUS64 KMEG 020012 CCA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TO REMOVE OLD AVN DISCUSS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
553 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... 

/ISSUED 309 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009/ 

SYNOPSIS...
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM DEVELOPING SURFACE 
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  TEMPERATURES WERE SEASONABLY 
COOL WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.  RADAR AND 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE RAIN STILL WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS 
THE GULF COASTAL REGION.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
INTO ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY THEN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.  WIDESPREAD 
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD STAY EAST AND 
SOUTH AS SURFACE LOW STAYS EAST OF FORECAST AREA.  MODELS HAVE 
SLOWED RETURN OF COLD AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM SO HAVE 
REMOVED THE CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. 

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
POLAR AIRMASS RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.  CONCERN OVER THE 
POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH MOISTURE FIELDS
AND HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION COULD FALL. ECMWF AND GFS ARE
NOW KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY...BUT KEEPING AN EYE ON THE SITUATION. AFTER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY...REST OF FORECAST PERIOD
CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK GIVING US THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

BELLES

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AS OF 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT TUP
ON/AFTER 01Z AND SPREAD NORTH TO REMAINING TAF SITES MAINLY AFTER
06Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DETERIORATING LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO MVFR CONDITIONS AND DOWN TO IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE AT
MEM/MKL/TUP AFTER 15Z AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE DECREASES AND THE BACK
EDGE OF THE LOW CARRIES BEST RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER JBR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  42  46  36  46 / 100 100  40  10 
MKL  40  49  34  45 /  80 100  60  10 
JBR  39  47  31  44 /  70 100  40  10 
TUP  41  50  38  47 / 100  80  40  10 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$