FXUS66 KMFR 261601
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
801 AM PST THU NOV 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...26/12Z NAM IN. 26/12Z GFS IN THROUGH 72HR.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED INSIDE 130W. SHORT WAVES
MOVING UP THE FRONT WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS...BUT IT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IT WILL NOT BE A PARTICULARLY WET OR WINDY SYSTEM...SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THAT THERE WILL BE ANY WIND OR PRECIPITATION RELATED
WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES.

THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND AND MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL FROM THE CASCADES WEST. THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST...COAST RANGE...AND THE MT. SHASTA
AREA.  

THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHEAR AS IT MOVES THROUGH...FORMING
A CUTOFF LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS CUTOFF WILL NOT
PLAY A ROLE IN THE MEDFORD CWA WEATHER...BUT SHOWERS WILL END FRIDAY
EVENING AS THE RESIDUAL NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH MOVES TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA. 

A STRONG RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL
BRING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A WEAK TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT WILL COMMENCE FRIDAY NIGHT AND PEAK SUNDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT THE HIGH HANGS TOUGH AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF IFR IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND IN THE
KLAMATH BASIN EAST OF THE CASCADES AGAIN WILL CLEAR LATER THIS
MORNING AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BRING IN MVFR TO VFR CLOUD DECKS AND
OBSCURATION OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
VFR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ021-ORZ022.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ023-ORZ024-
        ORZ026.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM 
        PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY 
        FOR PZZ350-PZZ356-PZZ370. 
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY FOR
        PZZ350-PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
        PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST 
        SUNDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

15/10/10