FXUS64 KLUB 272332
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
532 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE FCST PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LOOK TO STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION AND IS FCST TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
JUST AFTER THE VALID TIME OF THE TAF CYCLE ALTHOUGH THE FRONT
COULD ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY AFTN IF IT CONTINUES ITS TREND OF
ACCELERATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009/
SHORT TERM...
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES
ACROSS THE FA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS CONTRIBUTED
TO THE INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS TODAY. THE WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON LEADING TO SOME CLEARING
BEFORE A POTENT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING
WINDS TOMORROW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 70S AGAIN. DRY CONDITIONS MAY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. JDV
LONG TERM...
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE IN THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER
CLOSED LOW NEAR THE CWA. THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH THRU THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THRU MOST OF THE CWA BY DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE JET MAX MOVING OVER THE CWA.
ALSO...THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALL DAY
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW THE AREA TO WARM UP
INTO THE 40S...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF THE DAYTIME PRECIP IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE THICKNESSES LOWER...THOUGH AS THE LOW NEARS THE AREA IT
WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. STILL THOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX BY LATE EVENING...THEN BECOMING SNOW BY EARLY
MORNING. MOST MODELS AGREE WITH THIS THOUGH THE NAM DOES LAG THE
LOW BACK A FEW HOURS OR SO...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHTLY
LARGER ACCUMULATIONS.
MODELS DIFFERENT SOME FROM MONDAY ON...FIRST MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK
THE GFS HAS THE UPPER AIR LOW PUSHING THRU THE CWA...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP...THOUGH GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS BOTH
HAVE IT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH THE ECMWF
SOLUTION DUE TO ITS MODERATE SUCCESS OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS.
ALSO...THE ECMWF HAS A WEAK FRONT MOVING THRU THE AREA BY DAY
SEVEN...THOUGH HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 33 69 34 43 25 / 0 0 30 40 20
TULIA 35 72 35 46 27 / 0 0 20 40 20
PLAINVIEW 38 73 37 47 28 / 0 0 20 40 20
LEVELLAND 34 73 41 47 29 / 0 0 20 40 20
LUBBOCK 37 74 40 49 30 / 0 0 20 40 20
DENVER CITY 36 74 43 48 31 / 0 0 20 40 30
BROWNFIELD 36 75 42 48 32 / 0 0 20 40 20
CHILDRESS 41 73 41 48 32 / 0 0 10 40 20
SPUR 39 74 42 49 34 / 0 0 10 40 20
ASPERMONT 43 75 45 52 35 / 0 0 10 40 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/20
