FXUS62 KFFC 300933 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
432 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN TN THIS
MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
UPPER SUPPORT SUGGEST JUST SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT TODAY. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS HEARD OVER NW GA BY
LATE MORNING. EXPECT THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE FRONT WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY ONE HALF INCH OR LESS WITH SOME ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT TO EXIT SOUTH AND EAST BY EARLY EVENING WITH A COOL
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGE
WILL QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY AS THE GFS/NAM/SREF
AND ECMWF MODELS ALL SHOW A DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NW
GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACKING NEWD ACROSS MS/AL ON WEDNESDAY.
CLOUDS AND RAIN SPREAD UP FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY... WHICH SHOULD HOLD DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS IN-TURN WILL HELP HOLD THE GREATER INSTABILITIES
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO TN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A DEEP/WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO HELP ADVECT WARM DEWPOINTS AND POSITIVE CAPE
NORTHWARD...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE... WILL PLAY IT SAFE AND MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER GENERALLY SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO MILLEDGEVILLE LINE
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT AS
THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. QPF TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE RAIN LIFTING OUT QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME... EXPECT THE GREATER
SEVERE STORM THREAT TO HOLD SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY... BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL THREAT CLOSELY
AS WEDNESDAY APPROACHES. OTHERWISE...TOOK A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR
HIGHS TODAY...THEN LEANED TOWARD THE MAV FOR THE REMAINING PERIODS.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS/MOISTURE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD...MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW FLURRIES TO NORTH GA LATE THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE... A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECTING COOL SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS IN
THE 50S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY IF AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT CAN MUSTER UP ENOUGH MID
CLOUDS. SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW SEASONABLE... WITH TEMPS FALLING AT OR BELOW THE FREEZING
MARK FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS. EXPECTING SUNDAY MORN TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER... ALTHOUGH
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL SEE THE FREEZING
MARK SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...
CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWER THAN GUIDANCE TO DROP THIS MORNING...BUT STILL
EXPECT OVC050 AROUND 11Z...THEN OVC MVFR INTO THE AFTERNOON AS COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN MOVES THROUGH. ONLY INDICATING -RA...AS
LITTLE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. WEAKENING FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH
BY 22Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SW TO NW. EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS
DURING AND AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS.
SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SCT030 BY 00Z AND
SKC BY 03Z.
31/LEG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 60 34 61 43 56 / 60 5 5 80 90
ATLANTA 59 36 62 47 57 / 70 5 5 90 90
BLAIRSVILLE 53 31 57 39 52 / 90 5 5 80 90
CARTERSVILLE 57 32 60 41 56 / 70 5 5 80 90
COLUMBUS 65 38 63 51 63 / 40 10 5 90 80
GAINESVILLE 59 36 60 45 52 / 70 5 5 80 90
MACON 68 38 62 50 65 / 30 10 5 90 80
ROME 56 35 60 43 58 / 80 5 5 90 90
PEACHTREE CITY 61 33 60 44 59 / 60 5 5 90 90
VIDALIA 70 41 65 51 66 / 20 10 5 60 80
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
39/31
