FXUS63 KEAX 291759
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1157 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE IS TO RAISE TEMPERATURES A BIT ON TUESDAY AND 
REMOVE THE SILENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WE HAD GOING ON WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE FRONT HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 
OVERNIGHT. STRONGEST HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THIS FRONT HAVE BEEN OVER 
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AS SURFACE RIDGE DIVES 
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE 
UPPER MIDWEST BY 12Z...WITH ONLY A WEAK REFLECTION OF A SURFACE LOW 
HEADING FROM SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THUS EXPECT 
FRONT ONLY TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AND TO STILL 
BE ON SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF CWFA AT 12Z. MODELS STILL ADVERTISING A 
PERIOD OF SATURATION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AT 12Z...SO CAN 
NOT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. BUT WILL 
CONFINE THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO THE MORNING HOURS...AS BY 
18Z...THE SURFACE AND 850MB FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST 
AREA...WITH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR STARTING TO MIX DOWN. 

EVEN TRICKIER ARE TEMPERATURES TODAY AS THERE WILL BE COLD AIR 
ADVECTING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT...SO IN SOUTHEAST AREAS THAT ARE 
STILL WARM...THERE MAY BE A DROP THIS MORNING AND NOT RECOVER AS 
MUCH THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS MAY NOT BE CLEARING UNTIL LATER THIS 
AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...EXPECT NORTHWEST AREAS WILL SEE MORE 
SUNSHINE WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WILL 
STILL GO WITH ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIURNAL RISE THERE DESPITE CAA.  

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND 
ALTHOUGH SOURCE REGION FOR THIS AIRMASS IS MORE OF PACIFIC 
ORIGIN...DRYING AND COOLING OF THIS AIR OVER THE ROCKIES...SHOULD 
STILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AS THIS AIR 
SPILLS INTO THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND 
LIGHT WINDS SUPPORTING RADIATIONAL EFFECTS. 

TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO RECOVER ON MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE 
DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN WESTERLY. MORE 
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW 
FLATTENS AND SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGING AHEAD OF A CUT OFF LOW ALSO 
NOSES INTO MISSOURI. WILL GO TOWARD THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE 
NUMBERS. MAY BE EVEN WARMER...BUT WITH THIS SPLIT FLOW...TOO MUCH 
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT FLOW WE WILL BE SEEING TO GO TOO EXTREME AT 
THIS POINT. 

FOR WEDNESDAY...CONSENSUS BETWEEN LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS 
SEEMS TO KEEP SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO KEEP 
FORECAST AREA DRY AT THIS POINT. SO WILL PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS 
WE HAD GOING FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. 

PC

&&

.AVIATION...

TERMINALS CURRENTLY BETWEEN TWO BANDS OF IFR STRATUS...AND HAVE USED 
LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLEARING INTERVALS AT EACH 
SITE. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK FROM THE NORTH AT 12 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 
OCCASSIONAL GUSTS TO 20-22 KNOTS.

SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS DIMINISH AND 
GRADUALLY BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND ULTIMATELY SOUTHWEST TOWARD 
DAYBREAK. 

BOOKBINDER

&&

.CLIMATE...

THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR THE TEMPERATURE AT THE KANSAS CITY 
INTERNATIONAL OFFICIAL REPORTING SITE TO REACH 28 DEGREES TONIGHT. 
THAT WILL BECOME THE LATEST DATE THAT 28 DEGREES HAS OCCURRED. IF IT 
DOES NOT OCCUR TONIGHT...THEN BY THURSDAY MORNING WE WILL SEE A HARD 
FREEZE. HERE ARE THE TOP 5 LATEST OCCURRENCES OF 28 DEGREE LOW 
TEMPERATURES IN KANSAS CITY:

RANK        DATE              YEAR
-----      ------            ------
?          ??????             2009
1          NOV 29             1905
2          NOV 27             1944
3          NOV 26             1902
4          NOV 26             1958
5          NOV 25             1928

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$