FXUS63 KLMK 260519
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1219 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
THE COLD FRONT WITH THE DEEP LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAS
LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
19Z. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MEANDER OVER IOWA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING OT SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AFFECT ON THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME DRIER AIR MIX INTO THE
ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT AND WE COULD SEE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW SATURDAY
AND MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE
EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL KENTUCKY... OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 20S AND HIGHS
SATURDAY FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. WINDS
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS NORTH AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS A VORT MAX SWINGS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE MAIN BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WILL LIKELY MELT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN THE AFTERNOON. AS
THE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOULD END BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 FOR HIGHS THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF
COAST WHILE ANOTHER LOW MOVES ACROSS CANADA. MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
THURSDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
20S. THEREFORE DAYTIME PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX...WITH POSSIBLY ALL RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT WITH COLDER TEMPS ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE BOTH INDICATE PARTIAL CLEARING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE SDF AND LEX TAF SITES IN THE 06Z TO
08Z TIME FRAME EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS AT SDF AND LEX ARE ALREADY
IN THE 3K TO 4K FOOT RANGE AND VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SHOULD STRATO-CU
BECOME BROKEN AT TIMES...CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3K FEET AND
WITHIN THE VFR CRITERIA.
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT AT BWG...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY THAT WAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 12KT
THROUGH AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO JUST OVER 15KT
AFTER 15Z TODAY. WINDS MAY GUST ABOVE 25KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM........RJS
LONG TERM.........JA
AVIATION..........JSD
