FXUS65 KPIH 020951
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
251 AM MST WED DEC 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT COLD AND DRY WEATHER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. STRONG NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A CANADIAN
COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH SOUTHEAST IDAHO ON TUESDAY AND USHERED
IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MANY AREAS ARE BELOW ZERO AND IN
SINGLE DIGITS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
GK

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORE MODEL CONFUSION IN THE 
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE DEEP UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW 
US THIS WEEKEND.  ALL MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT IT WILL BE COLD... 
BUT PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW RESULTS IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN PRECIP. 
GFS/DGEX/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHARE THE SCENARIO OF A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING 
INTO THE PAC NW BY SAT MORNING. THE DGEX HAS THE LOW OVER WA...WHILE 
THE GFS HAS THE LOW OVER MT. NATURALLY...THE ECMWF PUTS THE LOW IN 
THE MIDDLE OVER ID. BY SUN MORN...THE DGEX AND ECMWF POSITION THE 
UPPER LOW OVER ID/OR. THE ECMWF SPLITS INTO TWO LOWS...THE 
WESTERNMOST NEAR 130W. THE GFS SPLITS INTO TWO LOWS OVER THE MOUTH 
OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER...AND OVER CEN MT. BY MON MORN...THE GFS AND 
THE DGEX SEEM TO AGREE ON THE OVERALL LOW PLACEMENT OVER THE 
COLUMBIA BASIN...AND IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE JET. THE ECMWV PUTS THE 
UPPER LOW OVER THE WATER AT 130W. BY TUE IT IS TOTAL ANARCHY. ONLY 
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FCST IS TO INCREASE POPS A LITTLE 
OVER ALL AREAS SUN THRU MON NIGHT...AS WELL AS LOWER TEMPS A BIT.  
WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE MODELS FINALLY COME TOGETHER 
ON A COMMON SOLUTION.  IN ANY EVENT...THESE SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF BC 
TEND TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT ON PRECIP. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN VFR 
CONDITIONS THRU THURSDAY MORN. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$