FXUS63 KICT 251152
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
552 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MOST PROBLEMATIC TERMINAL THIS MORNING IS KCNU...WHERE WIDESPREAD
-SN & BLSN WILL FREQUENTLY PRODUCE IFR VSBYS & MVFR CIGS THROUGH
MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE...STIFF W/NWLY WINDS OF 22KTS/25MPH WITH
GUSTS TO ~30KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY NO DOUBT RESULTING
IN CONTINUED DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS RUNWAYS (ESPECIALLY KCNU). LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...SCT-BKN STRATOCU ~4,000FT SHOULD SPREAD E/SE OVER
KS AND MAY PRODUCE SCT -SN THIS EVENING WHICH MAY LOCALLY REDUCE
VSBYS TO 4-5SM...HOWEVER WITH KSLN SITUATED ALONG SW PERIPHERY OF
WHERE GREATEST AREAL EXTENT OF SN SHOULD OCCUR DUE TO NWD MIGRATION
OF EXTREMELY INTENSE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE SUCH
VSBYS OUT OF THE KSLN & KCNU TAFS FOR TIME BEING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AND GUSTY NWRLY
WINDS TODAY.
TODAY:
STRONG PV ANOMALY WAS MOVING INTO SERN MO FROM AR EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE HEADING NWD TODAY REACHING IOWA
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ALREADY HAS ENDED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KS...AND THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AND END FROM SW-NE ACROSS
OUR SERN KS COUNTIES THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER STORM
WARNING THIS MORNING FOR THE AREA ALONG/E OF A COTTONWOOD FALLS TO
CHAUTAUQUA LINE. 1000-850 LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP TODAY
SUPPORTING A MIX DOWN OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THINKING CNTRL AND
S-CNTRL KS WILL EASILY HIT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS TODAY...WITH SERN
KS COUNTIES FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION
OF BLOWING SNOW ALONG/E OF I-135 CORRIDOR...AND MAY NEED A BLOWING
SNOW ADVISORY IN THE SERN COUNTIES WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL (6+
INCHES) OCCURRED AFTER WE LET THE WINTER STORM WARNING GO. ROADS IN
SERN KS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN VERY POOR CONDITION TODAY. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS HINT THAT SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE THIS PM IN CNTRL KS AS THE SECONDARY VORT LOBE OVER WRN
NEBRASKA SLIDES SEWD INTO KS. HAVE INSERTED 20-30 POPS THERE AS A
RESULT. WIND CHILLS MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR OUR NWRN-MOST
COUNTIES EARLY THIS AM. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY:
UPPER LOW WILL BE PINWHEELING OVER THE UPR MS VLY FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN...BEFORE FINALLY SLIDING
EWD INTO THE OH VLY ON SUNDAY. VARIOUS VORT LOBES CIRCULATING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW CENTER...WILL PASS SWD ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. PLENTIFUL 850-700 MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THESE VORT LOBES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN OUR AREA...WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR ANYTHING MEASURABLE OCCURRING TONIGHT-SAT IN
CNTRL KS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROF
EJECTING OUT OF MEXICO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS
VLY LATER TUES INTO WED. ECMWF HAS SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST QPF WITH
THIS FEATURE IN OUR AREA...HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SUPPORT A ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW WITH HIGHEST POPS IN S-CNTRL/SERN KS AND GOING FORECAST
LOOKS REASONABLE IN THIS REGARD. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SOME OVER THIS WEEKENDS NUMBERS...THE HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 22 14 27 15 / 10 20 20 10
HUTCHINSON 20 13 26 16 / 10 20 20 10
NEWTON 19 12 26 14 / 10 20 20 10
ELDORADO 19 13 26 14 / 10 20 20 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 24 14 28 15 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 19 13 24 13 / 30 30 20 10
GREAT BEND 20 14 25 15 / 20 30 20 10
SALINA 19 13 24 12 / 30 30 20 10
MCPHERSON 19 12 25 14 / 20 30 20 10
COFFEYVILLE 23 13 27 13 / 20 10 10 10
CHANUTE 21 13 26 13 / 20 20 20 10
IOLA 21 12 26 13 / 20 20 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 22 13 27 13 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ053-
070>072-094>096-098>100.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ032-033-
047>052-067>069-082-083-091>093.
&&
$$
