FXUS63 KMKX 282109
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
309 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009

.SHORT TERM...WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER WI WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD TNT AS IT
WAITS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SW MANITOBA TO WRN WY TO APPROACH
CLOSER. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WI SUN AFT WITH CYCLOGENESIS
EXPECTED OVER THE ERN GRTLKS. MO CLR FOR MOST OF TNT FOLLOWED BY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS QUICKLY ON SUN AS PVA AND 850 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA. A PLUME OF PWS AROUND 0.75 INCHES WILL ADVECT
FROM ERN IL INTO LOWER MI AND IS WHERE MOISTURE AND MOST FOCUSED
FRONTOGENESIS ARE COLOCATED...HENCE MOST ORGANIZED MODEL QPF THERE.
FCST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SEVERAL HOURS OF NEAR SATURATION BELOW 700
MB BUT WITH WEAK LIFT. WENT WITH LOW POPS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW EXCEPT ALL RAIN POTENTIAL IN FAR SE WI.

COLD ADVECTION AND DRYING TO PREVAIL SUN NT ALTHOUGH SCT-BKN
STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN. A CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN DIVE
SEWD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR...NE WI...AND INTO LOWER MI FOR MON AND
MON NT WITH A RETURN OF WLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION TO SRN WI. GFS
AND UKMET ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE AND RESULT
IN QPF OVER THE ERN AND NRN CWA WHILE ECMWF AND NAM ARE FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST WITH SHORTWAVE AND THUS DRY. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH WFO GRB WILL GO WITH FLURRIES MON AFT OVER EAST CENTRAL WI
FOR NOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FOR MON NT.

.LONG TERM...00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND WILL FOLLOW AS GUIDANCE. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL BE UNDERWAY OVER SRN MANITOBA CANADA ON TUE...BRINGING WARM
ADVECTION TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND WRN GRTLKS. 1000 TO 500
MB THICKNESSES TO RETURN TO 546 DM WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS.

THE CANADIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE EWD TUE NT AND WED WITH WEAK AND
DRY FROPA OVER SRN WI TUE NT. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL
PIVOT SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR WED NT AND THU WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON WED. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND SFC LOW OVER TX TUE NT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD...REMAINING
JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. 

ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE FCST WED NT THROUGH THU
NT AS A 516 DM THICKNESSES TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD AND THEN NEWD TOWARD CANADA FOR
FRI AND SAT. WEAKER WLY WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL RETURN FOR
THIS PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THU THROUGH
SAT. 

&&

.AVIATION...FEW-SCT CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME BROKEN LATE TNT.
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS SLOW TO
THICKEN UP AND LACK OF DECENT GRADIENT...WILL HAVE SOME MVFR VSBYS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS AND MOS SUGGEST MVFR
CEILINGS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME SUNDAY. GRADIENT TIGHTENS
UP A BIT. LIGHT RW/SHSN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTION WITHIN TAF BODY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...20
AVIATION/MARINE...10