FXUS65 KSLC 011105
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
405 AM MST TUE DEC 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT
ACROSS UTAH ON TODAY. A COLD AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PUSH WHAT LOOKS TO BE A
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH NRN UTAH TODAY...THEN THROUGH
CNTRL/SRN UTAH OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC LIFT AND MID-
LEVEL COLD AIR WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CONT DIVIDE...LEAVING UTAH
IN SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION WITH A MINIMAL THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW FOR
THE NRN MOUNTAINS LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY TROUGH
FOLLOWING THE FIRST WILL TAKE A MORE DIRECT TRACK INTO UTAH
WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND FEATURE WILL RUN INTO A FAIRLY STABLE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE ERN GREAT BASIN. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW
IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD STATEWIDE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST STILL IN LIMBO AS THE GUIDANCE HAS
YET TO FOCUS IN ON ANY ONE SOLUTION. SOME AGREEMENT DOES EXIST AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE CRASHING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE
POSITION OVER THE ERN PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE
PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. THE
CANADIAN MODEL IS BY FAR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF PRECIP BY
BRING A TROUGH INTO UTAH THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS REFORMS THE UPPER
LOW FURTHER WEST...THEN BRINGS IT EAST THROUGH UTAH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF TAKES A WHOLE DIFFERENT SOLUTION BY UNDERCUTTING
THE ERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND LEAVING THE BASIN IN A MILD WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW WITH NOTHING NEW TO
HANG ON TO...WILL JUST KEEP THE GENERAL CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THE NRN VALLEYS. WILL ALSO
HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
17Z AND 19Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH CEILINGS WELL ABOVE
6000 FEET.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...HOSENFELD
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
