FXUS63 KTOP 082200
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
400 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ENERGETIC UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS AT 21Z. STRONG
PV ANOMALY WAS ROTATING NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS. IR SATELLITE SHOWS
INCREASING ENHANCED CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS.
RADAR SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS OF SNOW MOVING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH SNOWFALL RATES AROUND AN INCH AN
HOUR. MAIN CHALLENGE HAS BEEN THE TRANSITION ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. AREAS FROM VALLEY FALLS INTO
TOPEKA AND COUNCIL GROVE WERE TRANSITIONING BACK TO SLEET AT LATE
AFTERNOON. AREAS FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE WERE MAINLY A MIX
OF RAIN AND SOME FREEZING RAIN. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THIS
EVENING EXPECTING THE COLUMN TO COOL FOR A CHANGE OVER BACK TO ALL
SNOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
TONIGHT SEE AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF NEW SNOW THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
PART OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT. ALONG THE
NEBRASKA BORDER FROM CONCORDIA TO HIAWATHA HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CALLS TO COUNTIES HAVE
YIELDED AROUND 6 TO 10 INCHES OF DRY POWDERY SNOW AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS WERE ALREADY CAUSING DRIFTS. WILL LIKELY SEE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT AND MADE
ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL
RANGE FROM MINUS 2 TO MINUS 20 ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT THEN MINUS 5
TO MINUS 15 IN THE MORNING HOURS.
53
ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DECREASING CLOUDS/WINDS AND SNOWCOVER IN MUCH OF THE CWA WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH READINGS RANGING FROM -5 TO -8
ACROSS THE DEEPER SNOWCOVERED AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
TO SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. WITH 5 TO 10 KTS OF WIND
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA...WINDCHILLS IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN CWA COULD BE IN THE 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO RANGE. THEREFORE
WINDCHILL ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED BY LATER SHIFTS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE STRONGLY AFFECTED
BY THE SNOWCOVER/SNOW DEPTH THAT IS LEFT FROM TODAYS STORM. FOR
NOW...WITH SUCH A COLD START TO THE DAY THURSDAY...WILL HAVE HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE TEENS IN THE DEEPER SNOWPACK TO 20S OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY BY FRIDAY AS WAA AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WILL KEEP A LOW POP GOING
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR RAIN/SNOW INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
RAISED HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S
SOUTH AND KEPT THEM IN THAT RANGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY TO HALT ANY
ADDITIONAL WARMING OR SNOW MELT IN THE NORTH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH.
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE NEXT SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE PLAINS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT FOR NOW LEANED TOWARDS THE EC MODEL AND
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTH AND EAST ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN DRY INTO TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOWER AND
FURTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN THE GFS.
63
&&
.AVIATION...
LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SEE
THE PRECIPITATION END BY 06Z. STRONG WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL CAUSE SOME REDUCED VSBYS DUE TO SOME BLOWING SNOW. CIGS
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY
FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ021-KSZ022-
KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ040-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
&&
$$
63
