FXUS62 KMLB 271930
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST AND UPPER 60S SOUTH. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION TO
THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY/COOL NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING THOUGH...AS SOME CIRRUS WILL STREAM ACROSS AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN 5-10 MPH. HAVE LEFT PATCHY FROST
IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF METRO ORLANDO WHERE LOW
LYING AREAS MAY REACH THE MID-UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE EXPECT MIN
TEMPS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.
SAT...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP A LIGHT NORTH
WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA. MOS INDICATES CLEAR SKIES BUT UPPER LEVEL
RH FIELDS INDICATE SOME CIRRUS...WHICH ARE SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS THE GULF...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
SUN THRU MON NGT...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTH
FL THROUGH SUN NGT...THEN THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST AS A
NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE ERN CONUS...WITH ITS
BASE REACHING THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH
FL BY 12Z TUE...WHERE IT WILL SLOW AS A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
REACHES OLD MEX AND APPROACHES THE WRN GOMEX. FAIR WX WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE PD WITH TEMPS MODIFYING TO CLIMO BY
SUN AND SLGTLY ABOVE MON/MON NGT. RETAINED SLGT CHC FOR POPS MON NIGHT
AS PREFRONTAL MOISTURE/CONVG COULD KICK OFF A FEW -SHRA...MAINLY TO
THE NORTH.
TUE-FRI...(MODIFIED PREV DISC) COOL FRONT LOOKS TO BECM QSTNRY
OVER CNTRL FL TUE AS A H50 SHORT WAVE TROUGH REACHES THE WRN GOMEX
AND SFC LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WRN-CTRL GOMEX. BDRY WILL LIFT
NWD TUE NGT/EARLY WED AS THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY NE ACROSS THE NERN
GULF COAST ...RETURNING SEWD AS A COLD FRONT WED NGT/THU MORNING.
PATTERN FAVORS GOMEX SQLN FORMATION WITH STRONG 120KT+ JET OVER
NERN GOMEX AND DECENT AMPLITUDE TROUGH AT H50 LEADING TO STRONG
MID/UPR FORCING. 50-60KT H85 JET ALSO CROSSES THE NRN HALF OF FL
WED MORNING/EARLY AFTN. SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SVR STORMS OVER ECFL GIVEN THE FARTHER EWD TREND THIS
RUN...ALTHOUGH THE SFC LOW LOOKS A BIT STRUNG OUT NE-SW (WHICH
TENDS TO DAMPEN OUT LOW LVL HELICITY SOMEWHAT) AND THE H50 TROUGH
TENDS TO BE LIFTING OUT MORE THAN MOVG ZONALLY/W-E AS YOU OFTEN
SEE IN MORE CLASSIC WARM SEASON ENSO EVENTS. NEVERTHELESS GIVEN
THE TREND IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE FUTURE MODEL RUNS CERTAINLY BEARS
WATCHING. FROPA WILL BRING COOLER/DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU AFTN THRU
FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS STILL BLOWING AROUND
20 KNOTS OFFSHORE...BUT ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS DROPPING OFF
EARLY IN THE EVENING. THEREFORE THE NEAR SHORE ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AND WILL GO WITH JUST AN ADVISORY FOR SEAS IN
THE GULF STREAM.
SAT...NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS MAY START OFF 10-15 KNOTS OFFSHORE
EARLY IN THE MORNING. THEREFORE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF STREAM
MIGHT BE ROUGH EARLY. BY AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP TO 10
KNOTS OR LESS.
SUN-WED...PROXIMITY OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR IMPROVING CONDS
WITH LIGHT GRADIENT WIND AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. APPROACHING FRONT
TUE WILL INCREASE WINDS/SEAS TUE...WITH FURTHER INCREASE LIKELY WED
AS SRN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY
GOOD THAT SCEC TO SCA THRESHOLD WILL BE MET BY TUE OR WED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENTLY...SEVERAL SPOTS HAVE HAD 2-3 HOURS OF LOW RH DURATION BUT
A FEW LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT VERIFY THE RED FLAG WHICH GOES
UNTIL AROUND 6 PM.
SAT...WITH CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CLOSER AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
ALOFT...THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUBSIDENCE AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MIXING DOWN OF LOWER DEW POINT AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL
LEAVE THE CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS AS IS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 39 67 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 40 67 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 43 68 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 41 70 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 40 67 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 40 70 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 44 69 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 42 70 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
