FXUS64 KFWD 260545
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1145 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WINDS HAVE COME IN LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED AND
HAVE GONE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TAF SITES FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WEAK FROPA STILL LOOKS TO MOVE THRU NORTH TX
TOMORROW MORNING BUT WINDS IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 6
KTS...SO LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FOR THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD.
TONIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.UPDATE...
SOME CIRRUS WAS PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND WILL SLOW RADIATIONAL HEAT LOST ACROSS THAT AREA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
AROUND WACO...KILLEEN...LAMPASAS AND CENTERVILLE FOR THIS EFFECT.
OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE SNOW PACK REMAINS...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS FROM
19 TO 24. ONE THING THAT COULD HINDER FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT IS THE
WIND BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK... AND THE SPECIFIC DEWPOINT AT
ANY ONE LOCATION. MANY AREAS HAVE SHOWN DEWPOINT INCREASES DURING
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO EVAPORATION OF SNOW MELT WHICH COULD WOULD
LEAD TO FROST FORMATION AND THE RELEASE OF LATENT HEAT.
CONCERNING TUESDAYS SYSTEM....WE/RE STILL EXPECTING A WINTRY MIX
GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND A COLD RAIN ELSEWHERE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
75
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009/
A MUCH QUIETER CHRISTMAS DAY IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
THE SNOW IS MELTING UNDER THE SUNNY SKIES IN MOST AREAS. ONLY A
FEW PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE EXPECTED.
POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST
THROUGH TONIGHT LEAVING NORTH TEXAS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S WITH COLDER OUTLYING AREAS. SHOULD
BE QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...WHICH MAY BRING SOME RAIN
TO COASTAL AREAS. THIS SHOULDNT BE AN IMPACT TO NORTH TEXAS OTHER
THAN POSSIBLY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...NEXT SYSTEM STILL ON SCHEDULE TO APPROACH MON/TUE WITH
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
BEST CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD SOME WINTRY
PRECIP MENTIONED...SO WILL KEEP SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL HAVE ALL RAIN FOR TUESDAY
AFTN/TUESDAY EVENING BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
REGION. ECMWF IS STILL COLDER THAN GFS IN ITS LATEST RUN BUT
THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO TWEAK THE
PRECIP TYPE AS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER.
TEMPS STAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 27 47 29 48 27 / 0 0 0 5 5
WACO, TX 27 51 28 51 30 / 0 5 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 24 44 26 42 25 / 0 0 0 5 5
DENTON, TX 22 44 24 44 24 / 0 0 0 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 23 46 25 45 24 / 0 0 0 5 5
DALLAS, TX 28 47 29 47 28 / 0 0 0 5 5
TERRELL, TX 26 47 28 47 27 / 0 0 0 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 27 51 30 51 29 / 0 5 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 30 51 29 52 28 / 0 10 10 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
