FXUS63 KICT 101143
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
542 AM CST THU DEC 10 2009
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND LIKELY LONGER.
A BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW
FOR PLENTY OF SUN AND LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS VERY
HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
LIKELY BEYOND.
LAWSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CST THU DEC 10 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH
MODERATING TEMPS BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
TODAY-TONIGHT:
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY ON TAP AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL KS WILL REALLY BE OFF
A SLOW START TODAY...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES STILL IN THE MINUS 15 TO
MINUS 20 RANGE UNTIL MID MORNING. SO WILL KEEP THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY GOING FOR THE MORNING HOURS...GIVEN THE COLD TEMPS. SNOW
PACK WILL CONTINUE TO MEAN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR CENTRAL KS
TODAY...EVEN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. COULD SEE
TEMPS MODERATE SOME ACROSS SOUTHERN KS...WHERE FULL SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO AROUND FREEZING WITH LACK OF SNOW COVER.
PREFER THE COOLER NAM/WRF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMP GRIDS.
COULD SEE TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DROP TO AROUND ZERO LATE THIS EVENING IN
CENTRAL KS....BEFORE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ACTUALLY KEEP TEMPS RATHER
STEADY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FRI-SAT:
RETURN SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW GETS UNDER WAY FOR FRI...AS MAIN
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. ZONAL FLOW AND A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW WARM ADVECTION TO COMMENCE ACROSS
KS FOR FRI AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY WARM AIR WILL LEAD TO TEMPS
MODERATING AGAIN ON FRI WITH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLING OVER THE SNOW
COVER IN CENTRAL KS...WITH TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER.
THIS WARM ADVECTION LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ON FRI INTO EARLY ON
SAT. MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LAYERS LOOKS TO RETURN TO KS AS
WELL...LATE FRI OR EARLY INTO SAT. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW
THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE GFS
ACTUALLY SATURATING THE LOW LAYERS ENOUGH...FOR A DRIZZLE CHANCE BY
SAT AM. WITH SURFACE TEMPS STILL BELOW FREEZING...COULD SEE SOME
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY ON SAT. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...AND WILL ADD THIS TO THE GRIDS FOR SAT
MORNING. COULD ALSO SEE THE MOISTURE BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE
CRYSTAL FORMATION ACROSS SOUTHERN KS...FOR A LIGHT SNOW
CHANCE...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
SUN-TUE:
ZONAL FLOW WILL USHER THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER SOME ON THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. STILL
SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. AND SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE FOR A
PRECIP CHANCE...SO WILL LEAVE THIS OUT FOR NOW. THE NEXT QUESTION
IS THE MODELS HANDLING OF A ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR DROPPING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA. GFS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS NEXT SHOT
OF COLD AIR ON SUN-MON...WITH THE COLDEST AIR STAYING NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. THE ECMWF ISNT NEARLY AS COLD...WITH AMPLITUDE OF THE
UPPER PATTERN NOT AS NWRLY AS THE GFS SUGGESTS. PREFER TO KEEP
TEMPS ON THE COLD SIDE FOR NOW...LEANING TOWARDS GFS...UNTIL
UNCERTAINTY IS WORKED OUT.
KETCHAM
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SURFACE RIDGE IS RIGHT OVER EASTERN KANSAS...SO LIGHT WINDS AND
ESSENTIALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE GOING TO BE THE RULE THROUGH MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME CIRRUS BY THURSDAY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
SCHRECK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 32 17 37 22 / 0 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 21 11 32 19 / 0 0 0 10
NEWTON 19 13 34 20 / 0 0 0 10
ELDORADO 26 17 37 22 / 0 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 34 22 38 25 / 0 10 10 10
RUSSELL 18 1 24 12 / 0 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 18 2 26 15 / 0 0 0 10
SALINA 17 3 26 16 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 20 9 30 18 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 32 21 38 26 / 0 10 10 0
CHANUTE 32 20 38 26 / 0 10 10 0
IOLA 31 18 38 23 / 0 0 10 0
PARSONS-KPPF 32 20 38 26 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>050.
&&
$$
