FXUS64 KHGX 092141
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
341 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVING DROPPED INTO THE 20S THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH UPPER 20S
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT COULD
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FORECAST BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE SFC HIGH
SO FAR TO OUR NORTH WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM OVERNIGHT AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO ACT TO LIMIT COOLING A BIT. TEMPS WILL STILL
BE CHILLY...WITH MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE US 59 CORRIDOR SEEING
TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING AT LEAST BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL
LOW EARLY ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING ALONG THE COAST AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HAVE EXTENDED CHANCE POPS INTO SATURDAY FOR
AREAS ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL THIS
DISTURBANCE ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE ON FRIDAY.
AFTER A RELATIVELY WARM WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
ADVERTISING ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. 38
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED. NORTH WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO 5-10 KTS THIS EVENING. WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 06Z TO 10-15 KTS INLAND...15-20 KTS
COAST AND VEER MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. 35
&&
.MARINE...
COLD FRONT CLEARED THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER FROM NORTH TO
NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WINDS WILL REMAIN 20-25 KTS OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. MAY SEE A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS THU AFTN BUT THEY WILL
PICK UP AGAIN THU EVENING AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY AS SFC
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...WILL
EXTEND SCA FOR THE 00-60 NM WATERS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. WILL HAVE A
SCEC FOR THE BAYS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY WHERE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP THU NIGHT DUE TO THE LONG
FETCH OF EASTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY AS
THE LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY (5-15 KTS)...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING
SUNDAY. COASTAL FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT OF A
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WITH THE LAST FEW. THE SFC LOW IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE AS STRONG (GENERALLY AROUND 1014 MB). THE
EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE MODEL IS ONLY FORECASTING TIDES ABOUT 1 TO
1.3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH RESULTS IN PEAK LEVELS AROUND 3 FT AT
PLEASURE PIER. WILL MONITOR THE NEXT COUPLE MODEL RUNS BUT MAY BE
ABLE TO GO WITHOUT A WATCH THIS TIME. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 29 51 37 53 45 / 0 10 20 40 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 30 52 39 54 47 / 0 10 20 60 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 39 54 50 58 53 / 0 10 40 60 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...38
