FXUS65 KABQ 232147
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
247 PM MST WED DEC 23 2009
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE EXPANDED SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN PLAINS...
.DISCUSSION...
A CHALLENGING WEATHER SYSTEM IS CROSSING NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WITH A FEW WEAK CLOSED LOWS PINWHEELING THROUGH THE REGION...ONE
OF WHICH IS DEEPENING DIRECTLY OVER SANTA FE COUNTY. RADAR TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE INSTABILITY TYPE SNOW SHOWERS BENEATH THE
MAIN VORT AXIS FROM THE JEMEZ MTS SOUTH THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY INTO THE SACRAMENTO MTS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN AND AROUND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
PERSISTENT SNOW. RAISED POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN WITH ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE. MADE NO CHANGES TO HAZARDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HAZARDS TO THE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL EXPIRE ON TIME
AT 00Z...ALTHOUGH SOME BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF SNOWFALL OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
AND SE PLAINS THIS EVENING AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BNDRY SLIDES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BENEATH UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEEPENING SANTA FE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. EXPECTED SNOW ACCUMS
ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...THEREFORE
WILL EXPAND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS THROUGH 12Z THURS. SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS
PROGGED BY 18Z MODELS OVER CENTRAL TX WILL ALLOW GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MAKING
FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WHERE ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW DEVELOPS.
A FEW AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN MTS
AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT PLUNGES SE THRU THE STATE. MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR BEHIND THESE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL USHER IN VERY COLD
AIR INTO NM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL HOVER IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS.
A SECONDARY VORT AXIS WILL ATTEMPT TO SWING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A MONSTER WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS STATES. ADDED A FEW ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHERN MTS AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COMBINES WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY. LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL AVERAGE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS MANY AREAS WITH NEGATIVE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN VALLEYS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM TUESDAY...AND ANOTHER NEXT FRIDAY. LEFT THE EXTENDED
GRIDS UNTOUCHED. GUYER
&&
.AVIATION...
MESSY CONDITIONS WITH MVFR AND IFR RESULTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY AND PRETTY MUCH AFFECT ALL TERMINAL SITES. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE SOME FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW
SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THUS LOOK FOR A BREAK IN THE
CLOUDINESS LATE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING FOR FMN...GUP...SAF AND
ABQ. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE RECENT SNOWFALL...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD
RESULT AFTER THE CLEARING SO HAVE THAT INDICATED IN TERMINAL
FORECAST FOR AFOREMENTIONED SITES. LVS...TCC AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
ROW WILL SEE CLOUD AND/OR PRECIPITATION AFFECTS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE STATE. WETTING
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE NORTHERN HALF AND SOME EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. THE
OTHER MAIN WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SECONDARY COLD AIR PUSH IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SLIGHT WARMING TREND STILL EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THAT PERIOD. IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT
WILL BE DRY.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DUE TO A STRONG PACIFIC
JET. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM 3 TO 4 DAYS AFTER THAT. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL
AS FAR AS WETTING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND WHO WILL BE FAVORED
BUT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER COLD ONE. MODELS THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAVE BEEN TAKING THAT SYSTEM ALONG A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK.
WINDS WILL BE BRISK AT TIMES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...DUE TO THE SECONDARY COLD AIR PUSH AT THE
SURFACE AND THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. THAT
PLACES A PRETTY DECENT THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE STATE AND THUS
RESULTS IN SOME STRONGER WINDS.
IT APPEARS THAT VENTILATION WILL LOWER QUITE A BIT ON SATURDAY
VERSUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/S RESULTS DUE TO THE LOWERING WIND
FIELD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 17 32 6 31 / 5 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 8 28 -13 23 / 20 10 0 0
CUBA............................ 9 28 -3 25 / 20 10 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 8 33 -1 33 / 10 5 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 9 29 1 31 / 20 5 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 12 33 2 35 / 10 5 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 14 32 3 34 / 10 5 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 19 44 14 48 / 5 5 0 0
CHAMA........................... 5 24 -14 20 / 40 10 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 9 27 3 26 / 20 10 0 0
PECOS........................... 11 29 4 26 / 60 30 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 6 27 -14 23 / 40 30 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 3 19 -9 13 / 60 40 5 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 4 24 -10 19 / 50 40 5 5
TAOS............................ 10 29 -2 25 / 30 10 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 15 34 5 35 / 30 10 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 15 30 6 28 / 30 10 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 16 33 9 32 / 30 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 21 34 13 34 / 30 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 23 40 18 38 / 20 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 21 41 16 40 / 20 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 22 41 17 39 / 20 5 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 19 43 11 42 / 10 5 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 21 37 16 38 / 30 5 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 22 45 16 46 / 10 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 15 29 3 29 / 60 20 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 17 34 10 34 / 50 10 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 17 30 13 31 / 60 30 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 18 38 16 40 / 60 10 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 20 41 18 45 / 30 10 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 20 32 16 33 / 60 20 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 7 21 3 24 / 60 20 5 5
RATON........................... 15 27 3 29 / 60 20 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 14 26 8 30 / 60 30 5 0
CLAYTON......................... 16 29 10 31 / 50 10 5 0
ROY............................. 16 31 13 33 / 50 10 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 19 34 14 35 / 50 10 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 20 34 16 37 / 50 20 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 18 34 14 36 / 60 10 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 22 33 18 39 / 70 10 0 0
PORTALES........................ 22 34 17 41 / 70 10 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 21 36 19 44 / 60 10 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 29 42 20 48 / 50 10 0 0
PICACHO......................... 22 43 17 50 / 50 10 0 0
ELK............................. 21 41 22 45 / 60 5 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ524-525-536>540.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>518-521>523-527>535.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ503-504-508-510-511.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501-502-505>507-509.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ526.
&&
$$
GUYER/50
