FXUS61 KBGM 071433
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
933 AM EST MON DEC 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. SNOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE OVER OHIO VALLEY WILL CROSS FA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR
TRENDS UPSTREAM INDICATE CHC POPS OVER MUCH OF FA LOOK REASONABLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST FLURRIES FAR SE. SKIES CURRENTLY
OVERCAST OVER FA AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. JUST
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY/TEMP GRIDS OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES.
PREV DISC...
PRETTY QUIET IN THE NEAR TERM. LES BAND E OF LAKE ONTARIO IS
XPCTD TO REMAIN N OF NRN ONEIDA TDA. OTRW...S/WV OVER THE OH VLY
WILL PASS THE RGN THIS AFTN. MDLS SPITTING OUT SOME LGT PCPN...AND
CRNTLY THERE IS A DECENT AREA OF PCPN ASSCD WITH THIS WAVE OVER
THE OH VLY...BUT ONLY XPCT LGT AMTS THIS AFTN GIVEN FAIRLY WEAK
FORCING. CHC POPS SHUD COVER IT THIS AFTN. TNGT...BAND E OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL DROP SWD INTO NRN ONEIDA. ATTM THERE APPEARS TO BE
THE POTNL FOR ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES. THE L01 (LAKE ONTARIO) NAM
PROFILE ACTUALLY LOOKS FAIRLY IMRPSV FOR ABOUT A 3-5 HR PD TNGT BUT
BAND SHUD BE DROPPING STEADILY SWD LIMITING AMTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING LES ACRS NRN ZONES ON TUE MRNG...OTRW A QUIET DAY BEFORE
CLDS THICKEN UP AND SNOW SPREADS ACRS THE RGN LATER TUE NGT.
SREFS AND THE 00Z NAM/GFS PROFILES SHOW A GENERAL "SNOW CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN" SCENARIO...BUT THERE IS A MARGINAL CHC FOR A BRIEF
PD OF -FZRA DURING THE TRANSITION PD. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP IT
SIMPLE AND PLAY THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO (SNOW TO RAIN). BEST
POTNL FOR -FZRA MAY BE OVER FAR NE ZONES LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN.
AS FOR SNOW ACCUMS...BEST GUESS IS FOR 1-3 INCHES MOST AREAS
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN...THEN RAIN TAPERING OFF TO -SHRA
WED AFTN. COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. APPEARS
THAT ANY LES WILL BE N AND W OF THE BGM CWA AS LOW LVL FLOW LOOKS
TOO SWLY. WE WENT WITH CHC POPS ADVERTISED BY MOS GUIDANCE FOR
MUCH OF UPSTATE NY DUE WED NGT BUT MUCH OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN
DRY...LATER SHIFTS CAN TWEEK IF NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHGS NEEDED TO LONG TERM TONIGHT AS 00Z MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH PVS GRIDS/FCST. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WL KEEP CHCS FOR LES ACRS
UPSTATE NY THRU MOST OF THE PD. WITH FLOW POSSIBLY SETTLING OUT
W-SW...MAY SEE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LK EFFECT JUST NORTH OF CWA.
PER 00Z GFS...HIPRES WILL FINALLY BUILD IN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING DRIER WX TO THE AREA.
IN CONTRAST...00Z EURO INDICATES STORM SYSTEM DVLPNG OVR NRN GOM
WILL RIDE UP TWD MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING FLOW
TWD THE SOUTH MUCH EARLIER AND CUTTING BACK ON POPS INITIALLY AS LES
WINDS DOWN. FOR THE TIME BEING THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS PRVS
ECMWF TOOK SYSTEM WELL OFF THE COAST BFR IT DVLPD. SVRL GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HINTING AT SFC LOPRES OFF THE EAST COAST...ALTHO FAR ENUF
RMVD FM THE EASTERN SEABOARD THAT IT WUD HV LITTLE AFFECT ON FA.
ENSEMBLE MEAN APPEARS SIMILAR TO OPERATIONAL MODEL. THEREFORE WL
CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF LK EFFECT SHSN THRU SUNDAY BFR DIMINISHING.
TEMPS WILL RUN BLO NORMAL FOR THE AREA UNDER CLD NW FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDS STARTING OUT VFR WITH EXTENSIVE BKN-OVC MID-LVL CLD DECK
ACRS TERMINALS THIS MRNG. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWERING CIGS DRG
THE AFTN AS UPPER LVL WV APPCHS. WILL LKLY SEE LIGHT SNOW
OVERSPREAD SYR/RME BY MID-AFTN WITH MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS INTO
EARLY EVNG. OTHER TERMINALS MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENUF ON CVRG/ANY RESTRICTIONS TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A BREAK IN SNOW THIS EVNG THRU APPROX MIDNIGHT ACRS THE
NORTH BFR LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS KICK IN AFT 05Z. CUD SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CONDS AT SYR/RME THRU END OF TAF PD.
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH FM 3-8KTS TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO THE W-SW
THIS EVNG AS WAVE PASSES.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR/OCNL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY KRME/KSYR.
TUE NGT...MVFR/IFR LATE IN SNOW...MAINLY ELM/ITH/BGM/AVP.
WED...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIP...CHGNG TO ALL RAIN BY AFTN.
WED NGT THRU FRIDAY...OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS PRIMARILY KRME/KSYR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RHB/RRM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
