FXUS61 KILN 151139
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
639 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA WILL BE UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON A WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW. THOUGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...DRIER
AIR WILL BE MOVING IN AT ALL LEVELS...AS EVIDENCED BY CLEARING
SKIES MOVING THIS WAY FROM ILLINOIS. WITH WIND DIRECTION
UNFAVORABLE FOR MUCH LAKE EFFECT IN OUR AREA...KEPT CHANCE OF
MORNING FLURRIES OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA PRECIP FREE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 30S. WENT BELOW GUIDANCE WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
TAKING HOLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND POPS ARE
VIRTUALLY ZERO. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S FAR NORTH TO
UPPER 30S SOUTH. A SLIGHT REBOUND WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ZONAL MID LVL FLOW WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE 
DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION CONTINUES TO BE THE BIG QUESTION AS 
OPERATIONAL MODELS OSCILLATE ON STRENGTH AND POSITION OF COLD UPR 
LVL LOW OVER EITHER SE CANADA OR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A 
RESULT...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND GFS 
ENSEMBLE MEAN DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS. THIS 
SOLUTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS 
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING OF EMBEDDED 
DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE UPR LVL FLOW WILL BE TOUGH TO PINPOINT AT 
THIS JUNCTURE. BEST CHC FOR PCPN SHOULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE 
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AND HAVE PLACED A 30 PERCENT CHANCE 
FOR SNOW SHOWERS THEN. THEREAFTER...HAVE KEPT SILENT 20 POPS IN THE 
ZONES DUE TO COLD NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE TAF SITES INTO WESTERN PA. IN ITS
WAKE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST AND CIGS HAVE GENERALLY DROPPED
INTO MVFR CATEGORY. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MOST OF THE 
DAY AND MAY EVEN DROP INTO IFR FOR A BRIEF TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.
DEEP MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED PRECIP IN THE
TAFS..SOME DRIZZLE OR EVEN A FLURRY IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TAF SITES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING FOR DECREASING CLOUDS WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20 KTS TODAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...AR