FXUS63 KJKL 101742
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1242 PM EST THU DEC 10 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THE REST OF TODAY...WITH WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL STILL BE 
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SEEN FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS AS WELL...BEFORE MOISTURE BECOMES TOO
SHALLOW. VIS SAT REVEALS CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO SCATTER OUT...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
ALL OF THIS WELL IN HAND AND WILL MAINLY FRESHEN UP THE ZONE WORDING
ALONG WITH MAKING A FEW TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH TIME AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO...AND THEN TRANSITS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
OTHER THAN SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING OUR WEATHER WILL
REMAIN DRY. AFTER LOW CLOUDS SCOUR OUT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT
ONLY A BIT OF HIGH CI TO TRANSIT THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. THEREFORE
EXPECT PREDOMINANT CLEAR TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY PREFERRED THE COOLER
MET MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. ADD TO THE
MIXTURE VERY LOW DEW POINTS...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...PREFERRED TO
UNDERCUT ALL MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD BY SEVERAL DEGREES. SO
WILL ADVERTISE LOW TO MID TEENS...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN
OUR TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. FRIDAY MORNING WILL DEFINITELY BE OUR
COLDEST MORNING THUS FAR THIS SEASON.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND IN RETURN OF MOISTURE
OVER THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE ADVERTISING A
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTHWARD TRACK OF SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION. OVERALL STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE HAS WEAKENED WITH TIME...BUT
APPEARS UNCHANGED FROM MORE RECENT RUNS. THAT BEING SAID STAYED CLOSE
TO PERSISTENCE WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER AND POPS. HOWEVER...WITH A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP PROFILES HAVE CONTINUED TO
WARM JUST A BIT MORE. AFTER CONSIDERING ADDITIONAL FACTOR OF CLOUD
COVER...FELT IT PRUDENT TO DROP ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE MID 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. 

OTHERWISE...MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES OUR AREA BY LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
OTHER THAN TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING POPS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN NOT EXPECTED...AND PERIODIC
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...PREFERRED
SMALLER DIURNAL CYCLE TO TEMPS. SO TIGHTENED UP THESE A BIT.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS
LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED

STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3 AND 4K FEET AGL WILL SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...LEAVING ONLY WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH DUSK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEARING SKIES AND CALMING WINDS TONIGHT. ONLY
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN IN THE SKY TOMORROW. 

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY/GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM....RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN