FXUS62 KMHX 070842
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
342 AM EST MON DEC 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND
WEAKEN. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TO THE N TODAY
AND WEAKEN. MDLS SHOWN A WEAK TRF DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST TODAY
HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS VERY LIMITED. FOR THE MOST PART THE MDLS
HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTN. I REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP OVER THE NRN AND INLAND SECTIONS
AND WENT WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC CNTRL AND SRN CST TO MATCH MODELS
AND QPF FORECAST FROM HPC. SHLD SEE SOME SUNSHINE EARLY AS AREA OF
HIGH CLOUDS MOVES OFFSHORE HOWEVER WILL SEE CU DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTN PER FCST SOUNDINGS. HIGHS MAINLY MID AND UPR 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM MONDAY...STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW
LATER TONIGHT PUSHING ANY LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR THE COAST
OFFSHORE. THE HIGH WILL RAPIDLY SLIDE E ON TUESDAY AND BY LATE IN
THE DAY WILL START OT SEE SOME ISENT LIFT DEVELOP OVER THE AREA N
OF A WARM FRONT. INCREASED POPS A BIT INLAND LATE TUESDAY AS
EXPECT SOME PRECIP TO DEVELOP PER INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT.
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS TUE TO AGAIN BE MAINLY MID TO
UPR 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM MONDAY...STRONG ISENT LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUE
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFT N THROUGH THE AREA. INCREASE POPS TO JUST
BELOW CATEGORICAL GIVEN MDLS AGREEMENT TUE NIGHT. AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS N SOME WEAK INSTAB WILL DEVELOP SRN CST AND ADDED SLIGHT CHC
TSRA THESE REGION LATE TUE NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE BEST FORCING WILL BE
LIFTING TO THE N WED AS AREA GETS DEEP INTO THE WARM SECTOR. KEPT
CHC POPS WITH MENTION OF TSRA WED PER MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. LOW LVL
CONVERGENCE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
MDLS NOT SHOWING MUCH QPF WED AFTN SO THINK CHC WORDING BEST. WILL
SEE RISING TEMPS LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED LOOKS VERY WARM WITH 70
TO 75 EXPECTED MOST AREAS.
STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER WED NIGHT AND THU IN WAKE OF FRONT.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS THU ESPCLY INLAND AND N. COLD HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION FRI WITH CONT COLD TEMPS WITH READING
STRUGGLING TO REACH LOWER 50S. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE SAT WITH CHC OF COLD RAIN AND MADE NO
CHANGES TO PREV FCST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...DENSE HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE BEGINNING TO PUSH
E OF THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED RADIATIONAL COOLING
EARLY THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT
FOG FROM 9-13Z BUT CROSSOVER TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 20S SO NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP. MODEL SOUNDINGS VERY DRY
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
AROUND 5KT FT DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST. MODELS ALSO BACKING OFF ON QPF
SO DON'T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP TODAY EXCEPT MAYBE A FEW
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS COASTAL SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.
THE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO CLEAR OUT LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...TIME SECTIONS SHOW 50+ KTS JUST ABOVE GROUND DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...SIMILAR TO THE EVENT LAST WEEK...SO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR A POSSIBILITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER/VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRES MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BRINGING N/NELY WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING WHILE SEAS MAINLY 3-5 FT. A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
ALONG THE COAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO VEER TO E/SELY TODAY
BUT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NW TONIGHT PUSHING THE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE
AND BRINGING A NLY SURGE AROUND 15 KT. AN AREA OF LOW PRES
INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TUE THEN RAPIDLY LIFTS
NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT AND WED. WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE NE AND E WHILE STRENGTHENING TUE AS GRADIENTS CONTINUE
TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN HIGH PRES CENTERED TO THE N AND THE
STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE W. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP TUE NIGHT AS WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND VEER TO THE SE
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY WED MORNING. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS
DEVELOPING WED IN SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF A FAST APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES CLOSER TO THE
WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS. WAVEWATCH ALSO CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT WED IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS
AND HAVE FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS WED EVENING BRINGING W/NWLY
WINDS THAT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THU AND FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CTC/RF
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...SK
