FXUS62 KMFL 221315
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
815 AM EST TUE DEC 22 2009
.UPDATE...EXTENSIVE THICK HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO
STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA NOT UNTIL THIS EVENING...SO LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO HAVE
UPDATED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THIS WILL AGAIN HOLD MAX
TEMPS DOWN BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPS RAN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER
THAN GUIDANCE YESTERDAY...WITH NAPLES ONLY REACHING 59F (STILL NOT
ENOUGH FOR THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR THE DATE...WHICH WAS 54 SET IN
2000). THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH TEMP RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TODAY.
THE MORNING MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS NE WINDS OF 15+ KT ABOVE THE SFC
(1-3K FT)...SO AGREE THAT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THIS PROFILE AND THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH SHIFTING
EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER REBOUND OF TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL...DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL GO MUCH ABOVE 70 SO
HAVE CUT BACK HIGHS A TAD. NO OTHER UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
MORNING. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM EST TUE DEC 22 2009/
AVIATION...VFR ALL TERMINALS THRU PD. MID/HI CLDS STREAMING NE
ACRS FLA PENINSULA AOA 120 KFT. DRAINAGE WNDS E COAST NNW <10 KTS
AND NNE <10 KTS W COAST. SFC WND BCMG AFT 14Z NE 9-13 KTS E COAST
TERMINALS WITH LOW LVL MOISTR INCRG WI LOW LVL CU 2.5-3.0 KFT THAT
MAY BCM BKN LATE IN PD WITH SOME STRAY SHRA AFT 00Z BUT NOT IN
TAFS ATTM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A DEEP
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS ENTERED THE CENTRAL GULF AND
EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS FEATURE IS WELL DEPICTED BY THE
00Z SUITE OF MODELS. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS CUBA
BY WEDNESDAY. AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND BE SOUTH
OF CUBA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS EVEN WELL DEPICTED BY THE
00Z GFS ENSEMBLE. FOR TODAY...THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ALLOW SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE BAHAMAS AND MAY START
TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTRODUCED INTO TODAYS FORECAST ALTHOUGH MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP AND
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE REGION.
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...A STRONG SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
U.S. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
REGIONAL WATERS WHICH WILL BRING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS WITH WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. SO FAR THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SO FAR DOES NOT INDICATE THE
DYNAMICS WOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION.
&&
.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL EXPECTED TO ENTER THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY LATER TODAY...BUT
LIKELY NEAR TWO FEET OR LESS...ALTHOUGH RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATED
IT COULD BE NEAR 3 FEET IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST AND BE SOUTH OF CUBA BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. SO FAR HAVE
CAPPED THE WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO NEAR 20
KNOTS...WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING IT COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 23
KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 61 75 65 / 20 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 65 76 69 / 30 10 10 10
MIAMI 72 64 77 67 / 30 10 20 10
NAPLES 70 54 77 59 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
