FXUS61 KPHI 291619
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1119 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING
FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING
AND BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
AREA. TWO SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND BRING A PERIOD OF WET AND WINDY WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY NICE DAY IN STORE WITH LIGHT WINDS, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM
BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM EST SHOWED THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED, AND
12Z NAM H925 TEMPERATURE PROGS SHOWED THAT OUR TEMPERATURES WOULD
RISE CONSIDERABLY IF WE BROKE IT. WE HAVEN'T QUITE GONE FOR THE MID
TO UPPER 60S THAT WOULD OCCUR OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES IF THAT DOES
HAPPEN, BUT WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS TO INDICATE THAT MORE THAN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD REACH 60 WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES APPROACHING THE MID 60S. 

ENJOY THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ABOVE NORMAL HAS BEEN THE RULE
WITH PERHAPS ONLY 3 OR 4 DAYS THE ENTIRE MONTH OF NOV BELOW
NORMAL. AS WE GET TO THE END OF THE SHORT TERM WE'LL SEE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW AS WE ENTER DECEMBER. THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
IS GOING TO UNDERGO MAJOR CHANGES THIS WEEK AS WE BEGIN TO SEE THE
CUSTOMARY SPLIT FLOW DEVELOP HIGH ABOVE IN THE JET STREAM. THE
UPPER FLOW OVERHEAD TODAY IN THE EAST IS WEST TO EAST BUT A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS
WILL CHANGE OUR NICE WEATHER TO A CLOUDY AND WET DAYS.

IN THE SHORT TIME INTO TONIGHT, THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS HAS PUSHED TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HAS
TAPPED SOME MOISTURE SPINNING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST LOW. THE
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE A LOW OVER LAKE HURON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT DOWN TO TEXAS. AFTER CLOUDING UP TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH...RAIN WILL
SPREAD WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH SOME BRIEFLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS. THE FRONT IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY AND
THE MEASURABLE MOISTURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE THE
TEMPERATURES TUMBLE TOO FAST BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER, THERE MAY
BE A TRANSITION PERIOD WHEN THE LIQUID CHANGES OVER TO A WET SNOWY
MIX OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO MID MORNING TUESDAY. THE MIXTURE COULD
EVEN MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF PHILADELPHIA
AND ALL LIGHT SNOW FROM THERE INTO THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE POCONOS AND MID 30S TO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF DELAWARE AND NJ.
HIGHS FOR TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. TUESDAY
WILL ALSO BE A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY AS COOL AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THROUGH WE BRIEFLY RETURN
TO A ZONAL FLOW OVER US AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE, THE DEEP LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST HAS MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
TEXAS AND ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE IS APPROACHING LAKE SUPERIOR. 
TIME TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE 3RD
AND THE FULL MOON ON THE 4TH. THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE ADVERTISING
A VERY WET SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY THEN THE SOUTHERN LOW REACHED THE
GULF COAST OR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHILE A LOW IS CRUISING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT FLOW
IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
NOT ONLY TAP THE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BUT ALSO PROVIDE AN AVENUE
FOR THE SOUTHERN LOW TO TRACK UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WITH THE
SURFACE LOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. THAT
SEEMS TO BE THE CONSENSUS OF A FEW MODELS. THE QPF OR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY THEN THE STORM MOVES QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY EVENING. 

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WITH THIS SCENARIO IS WHAT CONTRIBUTION THERE
WILL BE FROM THE GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS AND FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
MOVING OVER THE COASTAL REGION. THE ASTRONOMICAL HEIGHTS DUE TO
THE PERIGEAN TIDE AND FULL MOON ARE ALREADY COMPENSATED FOR IN THE
NORMAL TIDAL PREDICTION FROM THE NOS VALUES. THE CONDITION OF THE
BEACHES SINCE THE VETERANS DAY STORM ARE STILL AS THEY WERE AFTER
THE SERIOUS EROSION THAT OCCURRED. A COUPLE OF FEET RISE IN THE
TIDE COULD CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION. 

ONCE THE SYSTEM IS THROUGH THE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW NORMAL AS
THE DEEP TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS IN SOME OF OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND IT SHOULD LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, 
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN CONUS REMAINS IN PLACE EARLY THIS 
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY.  THE HIGH 
PRESSURE HAS YIELDED A CLEAR SKY FOR MILES.  VFR CONDS ARE PREVALENT 
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  BY TONIGHT, AN AREA OF 
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NR THE GRTLKS TO NEW ENG AND A CDFNT 
EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION.  THE FRONT WILL 
CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE 
FROM MONDAY MORNING ON, WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER BY 
EVENING.  SWLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE DURG THE DAY ON MONDAY IN 
ADVANCE OF FROPA AND SPEEDS COULD BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.  

WHILE THE LATEST MDL GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING IT, I WOULD NOT BE 
SURPRISED TO SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE 
MORNING OR EARLY AFTN ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES.  THE CHANCES 
INCREASE IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RNFL.  

SO, WHILE TODAY LOOKS TO BE ALMOST IDEAL FLYING WX FOR THOSE 
RETURNING FROM THE LONG HOLIDAY WKND, TOMORROW CERTAINLY DOES HAVE 
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MORE TRAVEL CHALLENGES.

OUTLOOK...
BEHIND THE CDFNT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUESDAY AND ANY 
MVFR RETURNS TO VFR.  GENLY TRANQUIL CONDS WILL BE IN STORE THRU THE 
MIDWEEK PERIOD, BEFORE ANOTHER LIKELY STRONGER STORM AFFECTS THE 
AREA ON THURSDAY.  ADDITIONAL CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT 
THAT TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A NICE DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS THE AREA WATERWAYS TODAY AS HIGH 
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SERN CONUS.  BY TONIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE WILL MOV FROM NR THE GRTLKS TO NEW ENG, AND THE TRAILING 
CDFNT WILL CROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY.  SWLY WIND WILL INCREASE 
AHEAD OF THE CDFNT AND COULD APPROACH SCA RANGE, BUT WAA SHUD 
PRECLUDE TOO MUCH ON THE SEAS AT THIS POINT.  THE BEST SHOT AT SCA  
WOULD BE MONDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN, AND THINGS SEEM 
MARGINAL FOR NOW, SO WILL NOT RAISE ANY FLAGS WITH THE MORNING 
PACKAGE. THE CDFNT THEN CROSSES THE AREA, BRINGING RAIN AND HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THEN, A STRONGER STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE SERN STATES 
AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD, ALONG OR JUST E OF THE APPALACHIANS.  THE 
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE FEATURES OF THIS 
STORM BUT THERE ARE SOME DECENT DIFFS WITH REGARD TO THE PATH, 
ESPECIALLY WHETHER ITS ONSHORE OR OFFSHORE.  WE'RE TALKING A GAME OF 
INCHES HERE AND THE SCENARIO WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED.  THERE 
WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME MARINE IMPACTS THOUGH, BUT JUST WHERE AND TO 
WHAT EXTENT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...DELISI/EBERWINE
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...NIERENBERG
MARINE...NIERENBERG