FXUS64 KEWX 251751
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1151 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE DRY
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL BE REINFORCED BY AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF COOL AND DRY
AIR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS A 500 HPA TROF
MOVES FROM OK TO THE MS VALLEY. AS THIS 500 HPA TROF MOVES
TO THE EASTERN U.S. THURSDAY...TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS A DEVELOPING 500 HPA LOW WILL CAUSE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 25 THSD FT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AND TO SCT TO BKN HIGHS CLOUDS BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SFC WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...NORTH AT 5 KNOTS OF LESS TONIGHT...NORTH
TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING...AND BECOME
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009/
UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO WARM UP BUT STILL ANTICIPATE AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS
AND KEPT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
WERE NECESSARY. NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MODERATE
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING AND BECOME
LIGHT TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SAT ANALYSIS SHOWS TEXAS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AT THE BOTTOM
OF A BROAD...FLAT UPPER AIR TROF. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC IS
CENTERED AROUND SAN ANGELO. THE CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS ARE PRODUCING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS ARE
RUNNING GENERALLY 15 TO 25 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. SO...WE
WILL SEE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. IN THE SHORT TERM HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN COOL MORNINGS AND WARM AFTERNOONS.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY SAT SFC HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE STATE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN AROUND TO SE
BRINGING A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE. THIS WILL MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STREAMER SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES SAT NIGHT. SUN AND
MON THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE CWA. SUN THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND MODERATE RAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING COLD
AIR. THE GFS IS SHOWING A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTER PRECIP OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY MON MORNING/AFTERNOON ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM.
TIMING OF PRECIP AND COLD AIR IS NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SO
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN FORECAST. WE WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 67 41 67 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 34 67 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 69 37 67 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 66 37 64 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 42 68 46 70 / 0 0 0 0 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 39 65 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 35 66 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 37 66 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 66 40 64 44 66 / 0 0 0 0 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 41 67 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 40 68 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/08/05/11
