FXUS61 KBOX 120550
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1250 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE LOW PRES OVER SE CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE BLUSTERY AND 
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SAT. A 
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE 
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRES FOLLOWS MON 
PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS 
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING OFF THE 
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL STALL ACROSS THE MARITIMES WHILE 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MIDWEST INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS 
WILL BRING DRY BUT VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND 
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WIND SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. 
KBOX 88D SHOWING SOME ECHOES...BUT ALL SURFACE OBSERVATION INDICATE 
THIS IS VIRGA. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE MAIN MID 
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST BY THIS EVENING...DO NOT THINK A MENTION OF 
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IS WARRANTED. GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE 
THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAV GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE TOO HIGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT LOOK REASONABLE TONIGHT. MET GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. FOLLOWING THE MET GUIDANCE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...THEN USED A BLEND WEIGHT MORE
TOWARD THE NAM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD CREST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE
HANDLING THE COLDER AIR BETTER SATURDAY...SO LEANED IN THAT
DIRECTION. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM LOOKS GOOD SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

BOTH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE EXHIBITING TYPICAL HIGH BIAS IN DEW POINTS
IN A WELL-MIXED WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. WILL UNDERCUT THIS GUIDANCE
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL SIGNALING DEVELOPMENT OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 
LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS THE GREENLAND 
HIGH LOCKS IN WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE NAO SIGNAL. PRIOR TO THIS...A 
COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE 
POSSIBILITY OF MIXED WINTRY WEATHER MAINLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. BY 
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT DRY BUT BLUSTERY AND VERY 
COLD WEATHER WILL RETURN. 

SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC 
COAST...WHICH WILL FINALLY SHUT OFF THE COLD AIR AS WINDS BACK TO 
S-SW. LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SE U.S. AND ANOTHER LOW MOVES 
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE 
DAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY WORKS E...SO 
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EASTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FOR THE 
WEST BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION 
PATTERN...EXPECT PRECIP TO START OFF AS MAINLY RAIN...THOUGH THERE 
COULD BE SOME MIXING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BERKSHIRES AND 
MONADNOCKS. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE 
LOWER-MID 40S...WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY MIXED PRECIP CLOSER 
TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES IN BRINGING SLUG OF 
PRECIP ON PRETTY GOOD S-SE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. KEPT CATEGORICAL 
POPS GOING FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT HIGH LIKELY FOR AREAS NEAR AND N 
OF ROUTE 2 AWAY FROM BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE HOW FAR S THE MIX OR CHANGE OVER 
TO SNOW WILL GET INTO THE REGION. TEMPS GENERALLY STAY IN THE UPPER 
20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS N CENTRAL/NW MA INTO S NH. HOWEVER...PARTIAL 
THICKNESSES INDICATE A GENERAL MIX WITH RAIN AND SNOW /AND A FEW 
PLACES MAY EVEN SEE A FEW PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN...THOUGH NOT IN 
THE FORECAST FOR NOW/. AT THIS POINT...THE MIX SHOULD HOLD SNOW 
AMOUNTS DOWN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL. 

APPEARS PRECIP SHOULD START CUTTING OFF OVER THE CT VALLEY AFTER 06Z 
OR SO...THOUGH LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER. CLOSER TO THE 
COAST...EXPECT TO SEE MAINLY RAIN...THOUGH MAY SEE A MIX WITH SNOW 
TOWARD MORNING.

MONDAY...LOW AND FRONT CLEAR THE COAST BY 12Z...WITH LEFTOVER PRECIP 
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ENDING BY LATE MORNING. WILL SEE BRIEF PERIOD 
OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE. NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY STARTS TO HEAD NE OUT OF 
THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW ITSELF WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE REGION... 
BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH E. EXPECT CLOUDS TO RETURN DURING THE 
AFTERNOON.

HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT. MORE MARGINAL TEMP PROFILE FOR 
MIXED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS NOT QUITE AS MUCH WARM AIR 
ADVECTION. MAY SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX ACROSS CENTRAL-W MA/S NH 
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR S AS N CT AND NW RI. 
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY RAIN ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY...WITH ANY 
MIXED PRECIP CHANGING TO RAIN EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WELL 
INLAND. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM 
W-E. COULD SEE A MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE ENDING ACROSS MOST AREAS AS 
COLDER AIR WORKS IN. 

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP 
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...EXPECT THE LOW TO STALL OVER THE CANADIAN 
MARITIMES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S 
INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO PUMP INTO THE 
REGION. MAY SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS NY STATE 
AGAIN...DEPENDING UPON THE WIND DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY. 

EXPECT DRY BUT VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING 
THIS TIMEFRAME. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW 
SEASONAL NORMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECASTED TO DROP TO THE SINGLE 
DIGITS AND TEENS. WITH STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY... 
WILL SEE WIND CHILL READINGS DROP TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN AND THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY 
NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY...
VFR WITH ONE MORE DAY OF GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 25-35KT...FINALLY
DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

TONIGHT...
VFR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY...
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS TO START...THEN CIGS LOWER TO MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIP WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH CIGS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO
IFR BY DAYS END. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND YIELDS WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH PRECIP TAKING THE FORM OF RAIN... EXCEPT A LOW PROB OF AN HOUR
OR TWO OF SNOW AT THE START AT ORH AND MHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
IFR WITH RAIN ALL TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING. PROBABLY SOME
IMPROVEMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR OR VFR AS PRECIP
ENDS AND WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA OR MIXED -RASN EARLY MORNING...THEN
QUICKLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM W-E BY AROUND MIDDAY. AS FRONT AND LOW
PRES MOVE E. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W...WITH CIGS/VSBYS
LOWERING AGAIN AT NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MIXED PRECIP OVER INTERIOR AND MAINLY 
-RA ALONG THE ACROSS E MA/RI AS LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE REGION. 
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM W-E AT NIGHT...BUT MAY SEE LINGERING 
WIDELY SCT -SHSN ESPECIALLY OVER E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO SW 
NH. 

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN WIDELY SCT -SHSN 
ACROSS E SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES INTO SW NH.

&&

.MARINE...
STILL EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING IN NARRAGANSETT BAY...WHERE THE NOAA
PORTS DATA INDICATE WINDS BELOW 34 KT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
BAY. ELSEWHERE...WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
DURING THE DAY...ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE GALE WARNING. WILL LIKELY
NEED TO ISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ONCE THE GALE WARNINGS ARE DONE
FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF SATURDAY. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT...
BUT ROUGH SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
 
SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT FROM SW-SE WITH APPROACH OF FRONT AND LOW 
PRES. MAY SEE GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE. SEAS 4 
FEET OR LESS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRES MOVING S OF NEW ENGLAND MAY BRING SEAS UP 
TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF GUSTS TO 25 KT 
EARLY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM S-SE TO W LATE. 

MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO N...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 25 KT 
MAINLY ON THE OPEN OUTER WATERS EARLY. SEAS MAY BUILD UP TO 5 FT ON 
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME S AGAIN AS NEXT LOW PASSES WELL N OF THE 
WATERS AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHES ACROSS AT NIGHT. WIND GUSTS UP 
TO 25 KT EARLY...THEN SHIFT TO W AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT.

WEDNESDAY...GALE FORCE W WINDS CONTINUE WITH STRONG COLD AIR 
ADVECTION ACROSS THE WATERS. GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KT POSSIBLE WELL 
OFFSHORE. SEAS MAY BUILD UP TO 10 FEET ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-232-250-
     251-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT - UPDATED 1249 AM
MARINE...BELK/EVT