FXUS61 KGYX 282044
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
344 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE STRONG WINDS TO DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND PRODUCE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER COASTAL
STORM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL 7 PM...GIVEN WE'RE STILL
GETTING SOME REPORTS OF SCT DAMAGE...HOWEVER...NOTICING A DROP IN
WINDS GUSTS ACROSS VT INTO WRN NH...SO WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH OVER THE FEW HOURS. SKIES ALSO CLEARING FROM W-E...WITH
THE EXCEPT OF UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MTNS. OTHER THAN A FEW SPKLS
AROUND PENOBSCOT BAY...ALL THE PRECIP HAS ENDED AS WELL. THINGS
SHOULD STAY DRY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING...BUT
WEAK 500MB WAVE MOVING THOUGH AROUND 06Z...COULD PRODUCE SOME
UPSLOPE SNSH LATE THIS EVE AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. STILL MAY SEE
SOME GUSTS ON THE ORDER 20-25 KTS INTO THE EVE...BUT WIND SHOULD
REALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS ACROSS ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN BY MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS DURING THE MORNING...WITH
UPSLOPE CLOUDS LINGERING THRU MOST OF THE DAY...HOWEVER THE REST
OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SUNNY...AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE S...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OPEN WAVE SYSTEM TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODELS SHOWING VARYING AMOUNTS OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT COMING IN FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. DOWNPLAYED THIS
PRECIP SOMEWHAT IN FAVOR THE VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MAIN SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS NOT WELL DEVELOPED IN THE MODELS EARLY
ON SO OUR THINKING IS TO PUT THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH ALL HIGH
ELEVATION AREAS FOR SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN NEARER THE COAST.
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT YIELDING SNOW AMOUNTS LESS
THAN 3 INCHES...WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN
THE HIGHER NORTHWEST-FACING TERRAIN.
AFTER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A PRETTY
DEEP UPPER COLD POOL...A CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE
GULF COAST STATES AND ACCELERATE/DEEPEN UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS POOR AT BEST...TYPIFIED BY THE
LATEST ECMWF WHICH JUMPED THE TRACK OF THE LOW FROM INTERIOR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE GULF OF MAINE. FOR NOW WE HAVE GONE
WITH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE TO HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...WITH
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNT/TYPE ALL SUBJECT TO THE
STORM'S TRACK. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THE MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING TO
CARVE OUT A COLD DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. SUBSEQUENT RUNS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
THURSDAY SYSTEM WILL BETTER SHAPE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD DROP TO SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KTS A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...WESTERN TERMINALS WILL DEVELOP MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH REMAINING TERMINALS DEVELOPING SIMILAR
CONDITIONS MONDAY IN RA/SN/BR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...HAVE EXTENDED THE GALES
THRU MIDNIGHT...BUT EXPECTING WINDS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY REACH SCA LVLS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT
WILL CONVERT TO SCA AS NEEDED DURING THE EVE. SCA LVL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO FALL BLO SCA LVLS
DURING SUN MORNING.
LONG TERM...WINDS APPROACH SMALL CRAFT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. QUIESCENT ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN HAZARDS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-018>028.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-
014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...STJEAN
AVIATION...CEMPA
MARINE...CEMPA/STJEAN
