FXUS64 KOUN 262017
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
217 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO THIS EVENING. ENID REPORTED A FEW FLURRIES EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY ARE HARD TO COME BY. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
HANG PRETTY TOUGH ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA INTO
TOMORROW...AND SOME OF THIS LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY TRY TO
SPREAD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. OVERALL DRYING IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW BEFORE
WE MOISTEN BACK UP LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE CLOUD COVER OVER
THE PANHANDLES INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON IS MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
EVOLUTION OF CENTRAL U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS SUGGEST THIS WOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT WITH LACK OF CONCENTRATED FORCING AND MODEST MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT WE WOULD NOT SEE MORE THAN
AN INCH OR TWO IN ISOLATED SPOTS. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE NAM IS DRIER AND TAKES LONGER TO MOISTEN
UP COLUMN. THE ATMOSPHERE AT THAT TIME WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN.
THERE ARE TIMING AND INTENSITY UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW S/WVS. HOWEVER...TREND TOWARD EASTERN U.S. TROUGH EVIDENT. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO COLD AIR INTRUSION TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND THAT
MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING. WE WILL GO ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 19 37 19 39 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 20 38 20 40 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 20 40 22 42 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 17 40 16 43 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 20 33 16 38 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 25 38 23 43 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/11
