FXUS61 KBOX 062038
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
338 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY.  A LARGE STORM
WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WIND. COLDER THAN NORMAL AND BLUSTERY
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TWO AREAS OF CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING...ONE AIDED BY THE OCEAN AROUND
CAPE COD AND THE SECOND MOVING OFF THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TONIGHT BOTH OF THESE AREAS WILL
DIMINISH. WE FAVORED A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE RGEM SKY GRIDS WHICH
WAS THE ONLY ONE TO PICK UP ON THE CLOUDS ALONG THE EAST MASS COAST.
DRY WEATHER WITH DIMINISHING WIND. TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS OVER THE REGION AND MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW BRINGS HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
ISENTROPIC SURFACES /280K AND 285K/ SHOW LIFT AT LOW LEVELS BUT THE
AIR REMAINS DRY WITH OVER 100 MB OF LIFT REQUIRED FOR SATURATION.
BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SO EXPECT THE BEST
POPS TO BE TO OUR NORTH...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE HILLS OF NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH. WILL BRING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THESE NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT
900 MB SUGGEST MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S. MOS GUIDENCE IS IN
THE BALLPARK...WE USED A BLEND FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS
TO THE EAST COAST EARLY AS THE OFFSHORE LOW DEVELOPS. THEN DRIER AIR
MOVES IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. USED A BLEND OF MOS FOR MIN
TEMPS. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TUE...HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH MOSUNNY SKIES AND NEAR 
SEASONABLE TEMPS.    

TUE NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRES WILL HOLD PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AND 
WEST THROUGH TUE NIGHT.  WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC 
POPS IN THE GRIDS LATE...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL WED.  
OVERNIGHT RISING TEMPS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY COASTAL PLAIN.    

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF NEXT STORM FOR 
WED WITH INTENSE PRIMARY LOW MOVING NE INTO THE GT LAKES AND 
SECONDARY LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENG.  ECMWF IS MOST INTENSE WITH 966 MB
LOW OVER LAKE HURON BY 00Z WED...WHILE GFS HAS 979 MB LOW IN SAME 
GENERAL AREA.  ALL MODELS ALSO SHOW SECONDARY LOW MOVING INTO NEW 
ENG.  

A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIP IS LIKELY WED ASSOCD WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC 
LIFT AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL.  THERMAL PROFILES 
SUGGEST PTYPE WILL START AS SNOW AS DEEP COLD AIR INITIALLY IN 
PLACE.  EXCEPTION WOULD BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE EASTERLY FLOW MAY 
WARM BL ENOUGH PRIOR TO PRECIP MOVING IN.  HOWEVER...STRONG EASTERLY 
FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY OVERWHELM THE LOW LEVELS ALL LOCATIONS AND 
EXPECT EVENTUAL CHANGE TO RAIN EVEN IN THE DISTANT INTERIOR DURING 
AFTERNOON.  SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH ICE POTENTIAL AS LOW LEVELS 
ARE WARMING MORE QUICKLY THAN ALOFT SO THIS LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A 
SNOW TO RAIN SCENARIO.  ADVSY LEVEL SNOWFALL POSSIBLE DISTANT 
INTERIOR.

WIND WILL BE OTHER CONCERN FOR WED WITH INTENSE LOW TRACKING TO THE 
WEST. ECMWF HAS HIGH WIND POTENTIAL WED AFTERNOON.  GFS NOT AS 
STRONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET BUT STILL STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVSY WINDS.  
EITHER WAY...STRONG WINDS LIKELY NEAR THE COAST WITH EASTERLY WINDS 
POSSIBLY BECOMING SW BY WED EVENING AS TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES TOT HE 
NORTH...BUT TIMING OF WIND SHIFT THIS FAR OUT IS UNCERTAIN.

TIDES...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW FOR WED AND DURATION OF EASTERLY 
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF WITH WIND SHIFT TO SW WED 
EVENING.  THIS WILL LIMIT COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.  

LINGERING SHOWERS LIKELY WED EVENING...THEN PRECIP ENDING 
OVERNIGHT.  

THU THROUGH SAT...BROAD MID LEVEL TROF SETS UP FROM GT LAKES TO NEW 
ENG WHICH WILL BRING COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND PERSISTENT 
BLUSTERY WESTERLY WINDS.  COLDEST DAYS SHOULD BE FRI/SAT AS 850 MB 
TEMPS DOWN TO -15C.  A FEW FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM TIME 
TO TIME...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...TWO AREAS OF CIGS AROUND 3000 FEET...ONE ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND THE OTHER MOVING OUT OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD SHOULD CONVINCE THE
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. ISOLATED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH...MAINLY IN
THE HILLS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
EASTERN MASS. CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...IFR LIKELY IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN.  STRONG EASTERLY 
WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.  .

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.  GUSTY WEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES
ON MOST WATERS THIS EVENING AND ON THE EASTERN WATERS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS.

MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST WATERS.
THIS WILL BRING WINDS NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...MAINLY GUSTS. THESE
WINDS DIMINISH LATE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH TUE NIGHT BUT WINDS RAMPING UP TO 
NEAR SCA ON SW WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT. EASTERLY GALES PROBABLE WED 
WITH WIND SHIFT TO SW WED NIGHT. HIGH PROB OF WESTERLY GALES THU.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
GLOUCESTER NWR TRANSMITTER IS OFF THE AIR. RTS UNKNOWN. 
WE ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM. JOHNSTON/PROVIDENCE NWR TRANSMITTER
IS BACK ON THE AIR BUT ON LOW POWER...SOME SOUTH COASTAL LOCATIONS
MAY BE UNABLE TO RECEIVE THE SIGNAL. MORE MAINTENANCE WILL BE DONE ON
MONDAY TO RETURN THIS STATION TO FULL POWER. IN THE MEANTIME...PLEASE
SEE OUR WEBSITE... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON FOR WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC
EQUIPMENT...