FXUS61 KCAR 090012
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
712 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL EXIT
THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. BRISK WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZFP TO INCLUDE SNOW SHOWERS AS THAT COLD NW
FLOW COMING OFF THE OPEN ST. LAWRENCE AIDING IN THE ACTION. WILL
CARRY 20-30% IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.
THE STREAMERS SHOULD DIE OFF AS WINDS LET UP ABOVE 925MBS. WE ALSO
WILL BE DROPPING OFF THE TEMPERATURES AS AN INVERSION LOOKS TO BE
SETTING UP AFT MIDNIGHT.

NW LOW-LVL FLOW W/ A WEAK SFC TROF ACROSS NWRN MAINE ATTM AND THIS
LEADING TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FA ALONG W/ A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS FAR NRN AREAS... THIS WEAK TROF TO DIMINISH THIS
EVE AS HGH PRES RDGD FROM WRN QUEBEC SWRD ACROSS NYS AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND BUILDS EWRD ACROSS THE FA ERLY TNGT. THIS RDG WILL CREST
THE AREA OVRNGT THEN SHIFT E OF THE FA BY ERLY WED.

THEN ALL ATTENTION TURNS TO COMPLEX LOW PRES SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE
OVR THE SRN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS FCST TO LIFT NEWRD INTO THE GRT
LAKES BY ERLY WED AFTN W/ SECONDARY LOW PRES XPCTD TO DVLP OVR SRN
NEW ENGLAND BY 18Z WED. THIS SECONDARY LOW WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY
PLAY MAKER FOR OUR AREA AS IT LIFTS NEWRD TO A POSN NEAR PWM BY WED
EVE WHILE THE PRIMARY LOW OVR THE GRT LAKES WEAKENS AND MOVES
ACROSS SERN ONT PROVINCE. THE SECONDARY LOW SHOULD CONT TO
STRENGTHEN AND LIFT ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE LATER WED EVE AND INTO
NRN NB BY ERLY THU. BEST FORCING AND ATTENDANT QPF IS FCST TO LIFT
NEWRD ACROSS THE FA FROM SW-NE BEGINNING LATER WED AM FAR SWRN
AREAS AND REACHING FAR NERN AREAS BY LATE WED AFTN/ERLY WED EVE.
XPCT THE SNOW TO BECOME HVY AT TIMES FROM SW-NE DURING THE AFTN
AND ERLY EVE HRS AS WELL... STRONG SERLY INFLOW NE OF THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD ALLOW ENUF LOW-LVL WAA TO BRING A TRANSITION OF PRECIP
TYPES ACROSS FAR SRN AND SERN AREAS BY WED EVE...

A VRY STRONG SERLY LOW-LVL JET OF 65+ KTS SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN
STRONG WINDS FOR OUR COASTAL LOCATIONS AS THE WARMER AIR WORKS IN
LATER WED AND WED EVE AND ALLOWS FOR A GOOD MIX-DOWN OF THE
STRONGER WINDS. XPCT PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR S AND SE TO CHANGE OVER
TO MAINLY RAIN BY WED EVE THEN END AS THE SFC OCLD FRONT BETWEEN
THE SECONDARY AND PRIMARY SFC LOWS LIFTS N OF THE REGION AND
ALLOWS A DRIER WSWRLY FLOW OF AIR TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING THESE
AREAS.

AS FOR HEADLINES...WILL CARRY A WNTR STORM WRNG EVERYWHERE XCPT
THE COAST. XPCTG GENERALLY AN 8-12 INCH SNOWFALL MOST AREAS W/
SOME LOCALLY HYR AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ALONG THE COAST FEEL SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL HAVE A TUF TIME REACHING WRNG CRITERIA BEFORE THE
PRECIP CHANGES OVER/ENDS. MAIN CONCERN ALONG THE COAST WILL BE THE WINDS.
THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A WNTR WX ADV FOR THE COAST ALONG W/ A HGH
WND WRNG. MAIN WINDOW OF STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST XPCTD TO
BE FROM AROUND 21Z-03Z...
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT
LAKES EXPECT SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. EXPECT STRONG COASTAL
FRONTOGENESIS WITH STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING BETWEEN THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT THE DEVELOPING LOW TO
HUG THIS COASTAL FRONT. EXPECT FRONTAL INTRUSION INTO INTERIOR
DOWNEAST ALLOWING WARMER AIR INLAND...ESPECIALLY COASTAL ZONES.
THIS WILL INTERN ALLOW MIXING OF STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO SURFACE
SO WILL CONTINUE HIGH WIND WARNING INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL
ALSO CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO MIXED THEN QUICKLY ALL RAIN. NORTH
OF THE FRONT EXPECT WIND SPEED LOWER DUE TO STABLE COLD AIR
DAMMING. FRONTGENESIS VICINITY OF THE COASTAL FRONT MAY RESULT IN
BANDING SNOW ON COLD SIDE OF FRONT AND ENHANCING ACCUMULATIONS.
THIS CAN BE FURTHER ADJUSTED WITH HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS AS EVENT
GETS CLOSER. HAVE GENERATED TEMPERATURE...QPF AND DEW POINT GRIDS
WITH NAM12/DNG5. HAVE THEN RUN OFFICE SNOW ACCUMULATION TOOL ON
THESE VALUES TO GENERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION. FOR WEATHER GRIDS HAVE
USED WEATHER TYPE FROM THICKNESS TOOL. HAVE MANUALLY DEVELOPED THE
WIND GUSTS GRIDS. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HAVE PRIMARY USED
BLEND OF NAM...GFS AND SREF.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WITH INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER
MARITIMES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY
MORNING QUICKLY FOLLOW BY LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO NORTH OF THE
STATE LATER IN THE MORNING. ANOTHER STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HAVE USED PREVIOUS GRIDS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDS XPCT THRU TNGT THEN CONDS XPCTD TO
DETERIORATE TO IFR FROM SW-NE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...

SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED W/ A 70-80 KT SERLY 925 MB JET
WORKING NEWRD ACROSS THE WATERS WED AFTN SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORM
FORCE WINDS TO OCCUR OVR OUR WATERS BY LATER WED AFTN SO HAVE
ISSUED A STORM WRNG FOR OUR WATERS BEGINNING WED AFTN AND CONTG
INTO WED NGT.

SHORT TERM: 
HAVE INITIALIZED WIND GRIDS WITH NAM12/DNG5. STRONGEST JET ALOFT
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. BUFKIT/NAM SHOWING MIXING EXTENDING UPWARD
1500 TO 2500 FEET. WHICH COULD BRING DOWN 60+ KNOTS DOWN BASED ON
SPEED OF NAM LOW LEVEL JET. THINK THIS COULD BE OVER DONE HOWEVER
ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO STORM WARNING. FOR WAVES: LATEST SWAN MODEL
NOT AVAILABLE SO WILL WORK WITH WNA III AND WNA/4. BASED ON WNA
WIND FIELD VERY STRONG EAST NORTHEAST FETCH DEVELOPS NORTH OF
FRONTAL SYSTEM AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUES UNTIL WIND SHIFT TO SOUTH
AROUND 03Z. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF THIS FETCH
BELIEVE THE WAVE MODEL WAVE HEIGHTS TOPPING OFF AT AROUND 18 FEET
IS REASONABLE. LONG PERIOD WAVE FIELD WILL HOWEVER PERSIST FOR
LONG PERIOD OF TIME GIVEN THE LENGTH OF THE FETCH. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM PLENTY OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
STRONG GRADIENT. EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS BUT MAY NEED TO UP-GRADE
BACK TO STORM WARNING AGAIN LATER THURSDAY OR INTO FRIDAY AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES. EXPECT MODEL WIND WAVE HEIGHTS UNDER DONE
IN OFFSHORE FLOW. ALSO OFFSHORE WIND WAVES SHOULD NOT INTERFERE
WITH INCOMING LONG PERIOD WAVES DUE TO WAVE PERIOD
DIFFERENCE....SO COMBINED SEA FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME
PERIOD MAY HAVE TO BE RAISE.

COASTAL FLOODING: FORTUNATELY A NEAP TIDE IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
EVENT. ALSO BIGGEST WAVES NOT IN PHASE WITH STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 5:40 PM THURSDAY AND AGAIN 6:11 AM
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MONITOR FOR ANDY CHANGES IN TIMING OF MAX
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVES. EVEN WITH NEAP TIDE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IN
EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS OR WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING 20 FEET AT TIME OF
HIGH TIDE WOULD BE OF CONCERN DUE TO WAVE AND WIND SETUP.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY 
     FOR MEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY 
     FOR MEZ003>006.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY 
     FOR MEZ010-011-031-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR 
     MEZ015>017.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR 
     MEZ029-030.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR 
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR 
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/KHW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/KHW
MARINE...HEWITT/KHW/MIGNONE