FXUS63 KICT 050532
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1132 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
AVIATION CONCERNS REMAIN VERY MINIMAL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
AS ONE UPPER SHORTWAVE RETREATS EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...OUR
NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHWEST
CONUS. LEE TROUGHING HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS
THE UPPER FLOW HAS BEGUN TO FLATTEN OUT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOUTH
WINDS KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAST SO FAR THIS EVENING. THESE
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. EVEN THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SAT AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LAWSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
CURRENTLY HAVE A COUPLE FEATURES TO KEY ON IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ONE
SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM ONTARIO DOWN INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION WITH
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN ID AND WESTERN
MT. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH HAS BEEN PUSHED DOWN INTO EASTERN OK AND
TX AS LEE TROUGHING HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO
REMAINING IN PLACE.
LAWSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND HEAVY SNOW
POTENTIAL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR AS IF IT WILL BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT SINCE THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. NEVERTHELESS...IT WILL STILL BE QUITE CHILLY
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP
WAS SHOWING THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL SEE THE CIRRUS START TO SPREAD EAST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER SOME TOMORROW AS THE LEE SIDE TROF
DEVELOPS AND HELPS INCREASE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA.
COX
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AM:
DIFFICULT FORECAST ON PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS EVENT. FOLLOWED THE ECMWF
AND THE NAM IN TERMS OF SYNOPTIC FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS. THE GEFS WIND ANOMALIES SHOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RIGHT OUT OF
THE GULF BRINGING IN MOISTURE ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS.
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF SNOW IN CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER THIS EVENT WILL HAVE LOW
QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES. IN REGARDS TO SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KS...LOOKING AT PLUME DIAGRAMS EVERY MEMBER PRODUCES
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA SO HAVE CONFIDENCE THAT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE PRECIP. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THAT IDEA WITH PRECIP TYPE MAINLY BEING DRIZZLE OR
SNOW. THEY ALSO SHOW SEEDER-FEEDER POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
LAYER...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE BEHIND AS
THE FRONT BRINGS IN ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS THROUGH DROPPING TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA.
COOK/DUNTEN
MON-TUE NGT:
ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THE
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM MON
NGT THROUGH TUE NGT AS THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS & ECMWF ARE
DECREASING. ECMWF CONTINUES TO TAKE A MORE SLY TRACK WITH THIS 2ND &
MORE ROBUST SYSTEM AS IT PROGS THE MID-UPR TROF TO REACH THE TX
PANHANDLE TUE EVENING WHERE AS THE GFS PROJECTS A TRACK SLIGHTLY N &
A LITTLE FASTER...POSITIONING THE 500-MB TROF OVER SC KS/NC OK TUE
EVENING. THE GFS IS NOTICEABLY STRONGER THAN IT'S ECMWF COHORT IN
MOST RESPECTS...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE INTENSITY OF THE
MID-UPR LOW/TROF. WITH BOTH MODELS (MORE SO THE ECMWF) PROJECTING A
MORE SLY TRACK...THE AREAS AT GREATEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALLS ARE MOST OF NEBRASKA & NRN KS WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS
MAY BE REQUIRED. THESE AREAS WOULD BE POSITIONED BENEATH THE LEFT
REAR QUAD OF A 100-120KT UPR JET & WHERE A TROWAL IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. WITH CNTRL KS NO DOUBT IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY POSSESS
SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO ASSIGN 60-70% POPS TO CNTRL KS LATE MON NGT
& TUE WHEN WRAP-AROUND EFFECTS TAKE OVER AS THE EXTREMELY INTENSE
CYCLONE (WOUND UP LIKE AN ALARM CLOCK) INVADES THE MID-MS VALLEY. A
VERY TIGHT N/NW PRESSURE GRADIENT DICTATES ADDING "BLOWING SNOW" TO
ALL AREAS TUE NGT. MUCH OF SE & PART OF SC KS SHOULD EXPERIENCE A
RA/SN MIXTURE ON TUE WHERE NO DOUBT ALIGNED WITH THE AXIS OF
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION.
WED-FRI:
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE "DEGREE" OF COOL-DOWN AS
CLEARING SKIES COUPLED WITH SNOW COVER & DIMINISHING WINDS WILL
INDUCE ALL AREAS TO REALLY "CHILL OUT". CNTRL KS MAY ONLY REACH THE
UPR TEENS ON WED WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MARIANAS TRENCH WED
NGT. THE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED LOWS OF ~10F TO CNTRL KS WED NGT MAY
NEED LOWERING AS THIS PERIOD APPROACHES.
EPS
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO TURN TO THE
SOUTH AND REMAIN LIGHT. SOME CIRRUS MAY SPREAD TO THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 17 43 26 36 / 0 0 10 30
HUTCHINSON 16 42 26 33 / 0 0 10 50
NEWTON 17 42 27 35 / 0 0 10 40
ELDORADO 18 44 25 36 / 0 0 10 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 18 45 29 40 / 0 0 10 20
RUSSELL 13 44 21 26 / 0 0 10 70
GREAT BEND 13 42 21 28 / 0 0 10 70
SALINA 16 45 26 30 / 0 0 10 70
MCPHERSON 16 42 27 33 / 0 0 10 50
COFFEYVILLE 21 46 28 41 / 0 0 10 20
CHANUTE 18 45 27 40 / 0 0 10 20
IOLA 18 45 26 39 / 0 0 10 20
PARSONS-KPPF 18 46 27 40 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
