FXUS65 KTFX 072154
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
254 PM MST MON DEC 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH TO ADD OR CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHER THAN IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING...THUS A
VERY CHILLY START TO THE DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW
WIDESPREAD RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS MIGHT SET A NEW RECORD TUESDAY
MORNING. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING...OTHER THAN A PASSING FLURRY. ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ALBERT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER...LATEST FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...THUS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS
GENERALLY LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH OVER THE
PLAINS...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
START A VERY SLOW REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL SINGLE DIGIT
HIGHS WILL STILL BE QUITE COLD. BRUSDA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS MAINTAINED GOOD CONSISTENCY
AND AGREEMENT FOR FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD BUT NOW SHOWING MARKED
DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. DEEP LONGWAVE TROF THAT
BROUGHT THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD DURING MIDWEEK. RESIDUAL MOISTURE MOVING
ALONG WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE TROF WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
AND SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE CWA ON THURS AND FRI. GIVEN
THE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...STILL REMAINING
PESSIMISTIC ABOUT QUICK WARM-UP INDICATED IN SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS AS
THE LONGWAVE DEPARTS. SO HAVE KEPT MAX TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1756Z.
THE AIRMASS IS COLD AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRY. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION HOWEVER A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
KEEP AREAS OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT
TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER LOCAL
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...AND POSSIBLE AGAIN NEAR MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF -28 -7 -18 7 / 0 0 10 30
CTB -31 -7 -21 7 / 0 0 10 30
HLN -24 -2 -15 5 / 0 0 10 30
BZN -29 3 -22 5 / 10 0 0 30
WEY -27 5 -34 4 / 10 10 0 40
DLN -23 -3 -16 5 / 0 0 0 20
HVR -31 -8 -19 7 / 0 0 0 20
LWT -25 -2 -23 4 / 10 10 0 30
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
