FXUS62 KFFC 281013 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
515 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NW FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE TO PERSIST AGAIN TODAY. SFC GRADIENT
DRAMATICALLY WEAKER TODAY AS SFC RIDGE PARKED RIGHT OVER THE
STATE. LONG WAY TO SAY NICE WEATHER NEXT 24 HOURS. AS SHORT WAVE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE HIGH CLOUDS
AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION. VERY
WEAK SHORT WAVE SHOWN ON GFS AND NAM 500MB PROGS BUT DONT EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN BKN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS TONIGHT AS IT ZIPS
THROUGH.
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST STATES SUNDAY. GFS AND
ESP ECMWF MUCH FASTER THAN NAM AND SREF MEAN WITH TIMING OF WAVE
THROUGH THE STATE. HAVE SLOWED DOWN TIMING SLIGHTLY FROM GFS AND
HAVE BULK OF POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY MONDAY. NO
INSTABILITY OF ANY KIND INDICATED AT ALL ON MODEL PROGS SO JUST
RAIN THIS EVENT. ASSOCIATED FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY
WITH FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE STATE. HIGHS
MONDAY MID 50S ACROSS THE GA PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.
USED BLEND OF 30 DAY BIAS ADJUSTED MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH
ADDITIONAL WEIGHT PLACED ON MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WAVE TO PUSH OUT MONDAY NIGHT TAKING ANY FORCING WITH IT EVEN
THOUGH FRONT EXPECTED TO HANG UP FAR NRN FL. NEXT FEATURE OF
INTEREST IS DEEP UPPER LOW PROGGED TO CUTOFF OVER NW OLD MEXICO
AND KICK OUT INTO THE MID SOUTH STATES ON WED MORNING DUE TO
ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVING INTO CA.
00Z GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TIMING AND INTENSITY OF UPPER
LOW...ECMWF A LITTLE DEEPER AND SLOWER THAN GFS MORE IN LINE WITH
12Z GEFS. REGARDLESS...STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN TO
DEVELOP WELL IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW. SHOULD SEE SCT SHRA MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN CWA BY TUES EVENING...EVEN EARLIER IF 00Z GFS IS
CORRECT...AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT.
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY TUES NIGHT AND WED. GFS 1000-700MB
MUCAPE SHOWING SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS SE PART OF CWA BUT
WITH UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT AND LIKELY MODERATELY STRONG
WEDGING PATTERN IN PLACE BEFORE ONSET OF PRECIP...HAVE NOT ADDED
TSRA TO FCST FOR THIS EVENT. WITH STRONG MEAN FLOW...GFS/ECMWF
MOVE WAVE OUT PRETTY QUICK WITH PRECIP MOVING OUT BY WED NIGHT.
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LARGE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EASTERN CANADA AND FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
SNELSON
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...5KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 63 41 67 46 60 / 0 5 5 10 50
ATLANTA 62 43 64 49 59 / 0 5 5 10 60
BLAIRSVILLE 60 36 61 43 52 / 0 0 5 40 70
CARTERSVILLE 62 36 64 45 55 / 0 0 5 20 70
COLUMBUS 63 40 67 50 66 / 5 5 5 10 50
GAINESVILLE 62 41 64 48 54 / 0 5 5 20 60
MACON 63 38 67 46 67 / 0 5 5 10 40
ROME 62 37 65 46 53 / 0 0 5 40 70
PEACHTREE CITY 63 34 66 45 61 / 0 5 5 10 50
VIDALIA 64 37 69 44 70 / 0 5 0 10 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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