FXUS61 KOKX 261437
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
937 AM EST THU NOV 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK STRENGTHEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING...TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN INTO THE WESTERN CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A DEEPENING
INVERSION TODAY. AS A RESULT EXPECT MOST PLACES TO REMAIN
CLOUDY...THOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE N AND W
OF NYC METRO.

FOG AND ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT...THE WORST OF IT IS OVER LONG ISLAND/PORTIONS OF THE NYC
METRO. FOR NOW APPEARS TOO ISOLATED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MOST OF THE DAY. THERE IS THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER LONG ISLAND
AND MOST OF SOUTHERN CT AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE COASTAL LOW.

WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER BLENDED NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. BASICALLY EXPECT A 5-10 DEGREE INCREASE
FORM CURRENT READINGS...PUTTING HIGHS JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
STEADY RAINFALL DEVELOPS TONIGHT FROM E TO W...AND CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF...POSSIBLY AS RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC METRO (DUE TO COOLING OF LOW
LEVELS WITH CUT OFF LOW PULLING OVERHEAD AND THEN TO THE
EAST...TOO WARM IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY CHANGE OVER
ELSEWHERE). WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...AND BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE
WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FOR NOW HAVE WINDS JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER LONG ISLAND/NYC/COASTAL CT...BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF A WIND ADVISORY WAS ULTIMATELY NEEDED FOR AT LEAST
PART OF THE AREA.

RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT AND SKY CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT.
WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

FOR TEMPERATURES BASICALLY FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN A MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT...HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL FRIDAY (LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE FROM TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY)...LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT 
SYSTEM THAT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES 
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY 
EXITS THE AREA.   EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 
40 FOR MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS AROUND BEHIND THE 
UPPER LEVEL LOW.  LOCATIONS IN HIGHER TERRAIN...AND FARTHER INLAND 
COULD GET CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK...SO HAVE PUT IN THE 
POSSIBILITY FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS 
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.  

AROUND MID WEEK...NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL PHASE 
TOGETHER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS...AND INCREASINGLY DEEPEN AS A 
LARGE SYSTEM...THAT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE 
AREA AROUND THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME.  AS COLDER AIR AGAIN ADVECTS 
ACROSS THE AREA...HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND POINTS NORTH COULD SEE 
RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...AND HAVE 
INDICATED THIS IN THE GRIDS. 

HIGHS DURING THE EXTENDED WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 50F ON MOST DAYS.  
WILL SEE A LARGER RANGE OF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DURING THE EARLY 
PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE HIGHER/NORTHERN AREAS COULD DIP INTO THE 
UPPER 20S...BUT LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST REMAIN 
CLOSER TO 40F.  EXPECT COLDER LOWS AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS 
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE MORE ALONG THE UPPER 20 TO MID 30 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE NC COAST. THE LOW WILL TRACK NWD TODAY 
AND REACH A POINT NEAR CAPE COD FRI MRNG. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY 
IMPROVE THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN LATER IN THE 
AFTERNOON.  LLVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LGT WINDS.

RAIN FROM THE LOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TNGT. BEST CHANCE FOR 
MDT PRECIPITATION AFT 04Z. 

TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)

KEWR...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT EXPECT 
NORTHERLY...330V040 COMPONENT.

KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
     26/12Z 00000KT
     26/13Z 00000KT
     26/14Z 00000KT
     26/15Z 00000KT
     26/16Z VRB03KT
     26/17Z VRB03KT
     26/18Z VRB03KT
     26/19Z VRB03KT
     26/20Z VRB03KT
     26/21Z 00000KT
     26/22Z 00000KT
     26/23Z VRB03KT

KJFK...MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH 00Z.

KLGA...MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH 00Z. 

KTEB... VSBY WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE.

KHPN...FORECAST ON TRACK...VSBY WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. MVFR 
PREVAILING AFTER 15Z.

KSWF...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS 
ANTICIPATED. 

KISP...FORECAST ON TRACK...VSBY WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. MVFR 
PREVAILING AFTER 15Z.

KBDR...FORECAST ON TRACK...MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH 00Z.

KGON...FORECAST ON TRACK...FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN IFR/MVFR 
LIKELY THRU 15Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 
FRI...WNW WINDS INCREASE TO 25-35KT AS LOW PRES RAPIDLY DEEPENS
NE OF THE AREA. CIGS/VSBY IMPROVING TO VFR ESPECIALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE METRO. 
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...REMAINING WINDY. GUSTS UP TO 45KT POSSIBLE.
VFR. 
SUN...WINDS DIMINISH. DEVELOPING WARM FRONT MAY RESULT IN
MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO 4 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
SO HAVE CANCELED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY.

WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT...SO HAVE PUT UP A SCA FOR ALL OF
TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS (SEAS INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BEFORE THE SCA GUSTS COME IN AFTER MIDNIGHT).

STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BE THE RULE FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE GUSTS TO AT LEAST GALE FORCE OVER ALL
WATERS...AND SUSTAINED GALES LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE AT
GUSTS TO STORM FORCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
ASSESS CHANCE AT ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
STORM WATCH. THESE STRONG WEST WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 9 FT ON
THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES AND UP TO 6-7 FT ON THE SOUND.

WINDS DIMINISH TO SCA LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SCA.  
HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WINDS AND WAVES TO 
INCREASE ABOVE SCA BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM .4 TO 1 INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR
EASTER CT AND LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NYC METRO. BECAUSE THE
RAINFALL WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER ABOUT 24 HOURS NO SIGNIFICANT
HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 2 TO3 FT
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
BLOW OUT TIDES AT NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
IF CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE A LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL NEED
TO BE ISSUED AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY 
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY 
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PFM
NEAR TERM...PFM
SHORT TERM...PFM
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...FIG/PFM
HYDROLOGY...PFM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...